“Only buy something that you’d be perfectly happy to hold if the market shut down for 10 years.”
— Warren Buffett
The Warren Buffett investment philosophy calls for a long-term investment horizon, where a 10-year holding period, or even longer, would fit squarely into the strategy. For income-oriented investors, the approach is often paired with disciplined reinvestment of dividends and a focus on durable, cash-generative businesses.
How would such a strategy have worked out for an investment in PPG Industries Inc (NYSE: PPG), the global paints, coatings, and specialty materials company founded in 1883? Below, we examine the outcome of a hypothetical $10,000 investment in PPG made in 2016 and held for a full decade with dividends reinvested.
| Start date: | 03/24/2016 |
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| End date: | 03/23/2026 | ||||
| Start price/share: | $108.95 | ||||
| End price/share: | $102.08 | ||||
| Starting shares: | 91.79 | ||||
| Ending shares: | 110.32 | ||||
| Dividends reinvested/share: | $22.21 | ||||
| Total return: | 12.61% | ||||
| Average annual return: | 1.19% | ||||
| Starting investment: | $10,000.00 | ||||
| Ending investment: | $11,256.15 | ||||
As we can see, the 10-year investment result worked out as follows, with an annualized rate of return of 1.19%. That performance figure assumes dividends were reinvested throughout the period and includes the impact of share price fluctuations over multiple market cycles, including the COVID-19 drawdown and subsequent recovery.
In dollar terms, a $10,000 investment made 10 years ago would have grown to $11,256.15 today (as of 03/23/2026). On a total return basis, that is a gain of 12.61% over the full period, or modest single-digit annualized growth. For context, over the same decade U.S. large-cap equities broadly, as represented by the S&P 500, delivered meaningfully higher annualized returns, highlighting a notable opportunity cost for shareholders in PPG over this stretch.
That disparity underscores a key point for long-term investors: even when a company is profitable, pays a dividend, and operates in an essential industry, valuation starting points and earnings growth trajectories matter greatly to 10-year outcomes. PPG entered the period with a mature, cyclical earnings profile and exposure to industrial and construction end-markets that faced several macro headwinds, including raw-material inflation and uneven global growth.
Looking ahead, investors will naturally ask a forward-looking question: how might PPG shares perform over the next 10 years? The answer will depend on a combination of volume growth, pricing power, margin discipline, capital allocation, and the company’s ability to compound free cash flow per share over time.
[These figures were computed with the Dividend Channel DRIP Returns Calculator, assuming dividends are reinvested on the relevant ex-dividend dates at the closing share price.]
The Role Of Dividends In PPG’s Decade Of Returns
Dividends are always an important investment factor to consider, and PPG Industries Inc has paid $22.21 per share in dividends to shareholders over the 10-year span examined above. For a total-return investor, this cash distribution stream is critical: it not only provides income but, when reinvested, adds incremental shares that can compound over time.
Many investors will only invest in stocks that pay consistent and growing dividends, particularly when evaluating mature industrial names. PPG has a long history in this regard. The company is widely recognized as a member of the so-called “Dividend Aristocrats” cohort, having increased its dividend payout for several consecutive decades. This track record tends to appeal to investors seeking stability and evidence of disciplined capital allocation.
Automated reinvestment of dividends into additional shares of stock can be a powerful way for an investor to compound returns over long time frames. The above calculations are done with the assumption that dividends received over time are reinvested (the calculations use the closing price on ex-date). Over 10 years, this reinvestment helped lift the share count from 91.79 shares at inception to 110.32 shares at the end of the period, even though the share price itself finished slightly below the 2016 starting level.
Current Dividend Yield And Yield On Cost
Based upon the most recent annualized dividend rate of $2.84 per share, we calculate that PPG has a current yield of approximately 2.78%. For income-focused investors, that places the stock in the range of what is often viewed as a “market-level” or slightly above-market yield, depending on prevailing Treasury and equity index yields.
Another interesting datapoint we can examine is ‘yield on cost’ — in other words, we can express the current annualized dividend of $2.84 against the original $108.95 per share purchase price. This works out to a yield on cost of 2.55%. While yield on cost is not a valuation metric, it is a useful way for long-term holders to assess how the income stream from their original investment has grown over time.
For a company like PPG, where management has historically prioritized dividend growth alongside share repurchases and bolt-on acquisitions, the trajectory of the dividend can be a key component of the total shareholder return equation. If dividend increases continue and earnings support the payout, investors may see their yield on cost rise further in future years, even if share-price appreciation is more modest.
PPG As A Long-Term Compounder: What The Last Decade Suggests
From a long-term compounding perspective, the past 10 years for PPG illustrate several themes that matter to fundamental investors:
- Multiple market cycles: The period from 2016 to 2026 encapsulated late-cycle expansion, a global pandemic, supply-chain disruptions, and shifting interest-rate regimes. PPG remained profitable and continued to return capital to shareholders, but cyclical earnings pressure constrained share-price compounding.
- Dividend durability vs. price volatility: While the share price ended the decade slightly below the starting level, the steady stream of dividends and their reinvestment provided the bulk of total return. For investors prioritizing capital preservation and income, that profile may still be acceptable, even if it lagged broader equity benchmarks.
- Starting valuation matters: Returns over a 10-year horizon can be significantly influenced by the valuation paid at entry. Buying a stable business at a full or premium multiple can cap forward returns, particularly when earnings growth is mid-single-digit in nature.
- Reinvestment discipline: The increase in share count via dividend reinvestment partially mitigated the effect of a flat-to-down share price. Over longer periods, this mechanism can become more powerful if the underlying earnings and dividend continue to grow.
Investors evaluating PPG today may wish to consider how future earnings growth, capital spending, and balance-sheet strength position the company for the coming decade, especially in light of trends such as infrastructure spending, automotive production, housing activity, and sustainability-driven demand for advanced coatings.
As always, past performance does not guarantee future results, and a backward-looking 10-year snapshot should be only one input among many in a comprehensive investment decision-making process.
Another enduring investment quote to think about:
“If you don’t study any companies, you have the same success buying stocks as you do in a poker game if you bet without looking at your cards.” — Peter Lynch
