“I buy on the assumption that they could close the market the next day and not reopen it for five years.”
— Warren Buffett
A five-year holding period is a useful test of whether a dividend stock has created value through both price performance and cash distributions. For Molson Coors Beverage Co (NYSE: TAP), that test has produced a negative result: a $10,000 investment made on 09/29/2021 would be worth $9,034.60 as of 09/28/2026, assuming dividends were reinvested.
That outcome matters because TAP is often viewed through an income-oriented lens. The stock offers a meaningful dividend yield, but this five-year period shows that dividend income did not fully offset share-price weakness. In other words, reinvested dividends softened the decline, but they did not turn the investment into a positive total return.
TAP Five-Year Return at a Glance
| Start date: | 09/29/2021 |
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| End date: | 09/28/2026 | ||||
| Start price/share: | $47.32 | ||||
| End price/share: | $36.27 | ||||
| Starting shares: | 211.33 | ||||
| Ending shares: | 249.06 | ||||
| Dividends reinvested/share: | $8.58 | ||||
| Total return: | -9.66% | ||||
| Average annual return: | -2.01% | ||||
| Starting investment: | $10,000.00 | ||||
| Ending investment: | $9,034.60 | ||||
On these assumptions, TAP delivered a total return of -9.66%, equal to an annualized return of -2.01%. Put simply, the investment lost value over the period even after accounting for dividends and dividend reinvestment. [These numbers were computed with the Dividend Channel DRIP Returns Calculator.]
What Drove the Negative Return?
The main driver was capital depreciation. TAP shares fell from $47.32 to $36.27 over the period, a decline large enough to outweigh the benefit of reinvested dividends. That distinction is important: the company generated cash income for shareholders, but the market value of the stock fell more than enough to erase those gains.
The mechanics of reinvestment help show this clearly. Starting with 211.33 shares, the position grew to 249.06 shares because dividends were used to buy additional stock. That higher share count provided some insulation, but each share was worth less at the end of the period. The result was a lower ending portfolio value despite owning more shares.
How Dividend Reinvestment Affected the Outcome
Over the five years, Molson Coors Beverage Co paid $8.58 per share in dividends, and this analysis assumes each dividend was reinvested at the closing price on the ex-dividend date. Reinvestment increased the share count by roughly 17.9%, from 211.33 shares to 249.06 shares.
That illustrates a broader principle for dividend stocks:
- Dividends can cushion weak price performance.
- Reinvestment can accelerate share accumulation when prices are lower.
- But a high yield alone does not guarantee a positive total return.
In TAP’s case, the dividend stream was meaningful, but not sufficient to overcome the decline in the stock price.
Current Yield and Yield on Cost
Based on the most recent annualized dividend rate of $1.92 per share, TAP has a current yield of approximately 5.29% using the ending share price of $36.27. That headline yield may look attractive, particularly in a market where income remains a key part of equity return.
Yield on cost tells a different, but related, story. Using the same $1.92 annualized dividend and the original purchase price of $47.32, the yield on cost is about 4.06%. Yield on cost measures current income relative to the initial entry price, not the current market price. It can be useful for tracking how an income stream evolves over time, but it should not be confused with current yield, which reflects what a new buyer would earn at today’s price.
Key Takeaways
For investors evaluating Molson Coors stock, the five-year record from late 2021 to late 2026 can be summarized as follows:
- A $10,000 investment in TAP declined to $9,034.60 with dividends reinvested.
- The total return was -9.66%.
- The annualized return was -2.01%.
- Dividend income provided support, but share-price weakness remained the dominant factor.
- The stock’s current yield is elevated largely because the share price is lower than it was at the start of the period.
For dividend-stock analysis, this is a useful reminder that total return remains the decisive metric. Income matters, but the long-term result still depends on the interaction between dividends, valuation, and underlying share performance.
Here’s one more investment quote before you go:
“Opportunities come infrequently. When it rains gold, put out the bucket, not the thimble.” — Warren Buffett
