“I buy on the assumption that they could close the market the next day and not reopen it for five years.”
— Warren Buffett
A critical pearl of wisdom from Warren Buffett teaches us that with any potential stock investment we may make, as soon as our buy order is filled we will have a choice: to remain a co-owner of that company for the long haul, or to react to the inevitable short-term ups and downs that the stock market is famous for (sometimes sharp ups and downs).
The reality of this choice forces us to challenge our confidence in any given company we might invest into, and keep our eyes on the long-term time horizon. The market may go up and down in the interim, but over a five-year holding period, will the investment succeed?
Back in 2021, investors may have been asking themselves that very question about CBRE Group Inc (NYSE: CBRE). CBRE is the world’s largest commercial real estate services and investment firm by revenue, with a diversified business spanning property sales and leasing, facilities and project management, investment management, and advisory services across office, industrial, retail, multifamily, and alternatives. As such, its earnings power is closely linked to global real estate capital flows and corporate occupancy trends.
Against that backdrop, let’s examine what would have happened over a five-year holding period, had you invested in CBRE shares back in 2021 and simply held on through the cycle.
| Start date: | 04/06/2021 |
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| End date: | 04/02/2026 | ||||
| Start price/share: | $79.64 | ||||
| End price/share: | $136.60 | ||||
| Starting shares: | 125.57 | ||||
| Ending shares: | 125.57 | ||||
| Dividends reinvested/share: | $0.00 | ||||
| Total return: | 71.52% | ||||
| Average annual return: | 11.41% | ||||
| Starting investment: | $10,000.00 | ||||
| Ending investment: | $17,148.86 | ||||
As shown above, the five-year investment result worked out quite well, with an annualized rate of return of 11.41%. This would have turned a $10K investment made five years ago into $17,148.86 today (as of 04/02/2026). On a total return basis, that is a gain of 71.52%.
Those numbers are especially notable given the environment over that period. From April 2021 through early 2026, CBRE shareholders had to navigate:
- Heightened uncertainty around the long-term demand for office space as hybrid work models took hold.
- An aggressive interest-rate hiking cycle that pressured real estate valuations and transaction volumes.
- A risk-off turn in global capital markets in 2022, followed by a gradual recovery in risk assets.
- Persistent cost inflation for labor and construction materials, weighing on development economics.
Against that backdrop, the stock moved through several significant drawdowns and recoveries. Yet a buy-and-hold investor who committed capital in early April 2021 and held through volatility, without receiving or reinvesting dividends, still realized a double-digit annualized return over five years. CBRE’s business model — with fee-based services, global scale and exposure to secular themes such as logistics, data centers and outsourcing of real estate functions by large corporates — helped support earnings power even as parts of the commercial property market remained under pressure.
It is also worth underscoring that CBRE does not currently pay a regular dividend, as reflected in the “$0.00” figure for dividends reinvested per share in the table above. All of the performance in this period was therefore generated through price appreciation alone, rather than income. For income-oriented investors, that means CBRE is more akin to a total-return or growth-at-a-reasonable-price holding within the real estate complex, rather than a traditional yield vehicle such as a REIT.
Of course, this backward-looking analysis is descriptive rather than predictive. The next five years could look very different, depending on the trajectory of interest rates, corporate space utilization, transaction volumes, and investor appetite for commercial real estate risk. Still, this case study offers a concrete example of how a disciplined, multi-year holding period in a market-leading operator can compound capital, even amid cyclical and structural uncertainty.
For investors considering positions today, the exercise of “looking back from the future” can be useful: if you were to buy CBRE now and the market were to close for the next five years, would you be comfortable owning an equity claim on a diversified, fee-based global real estate services franchise through that period?
Another great investment quote to think about:
“Go for a business that any idiot can run — because sooner or later, any idiot probably is going to run it.” — Peter Lynch
The lens suggested by Peter Lynch is especially relevant for cyclical, service-oriented businesses such as CBRE. Balance-sheet strength, recurring fee income, diversified end markets and prudent capital allocation can be critical supports when industry conditions inevitably shift.
