“Only buy something that you’d be perfectly happy to hold if the market shut down for 10 years.”
— Warren Buffett
The wisdom of Warren Buffett reflects a value-based philosophy about investing that says investors are buying shares in a business, and encourages strategic thinking about investment time horizon. Before placing a buy order for a stock, a great question we can ask is whether we would still be comfortable making the investment if we couldn’t sell it for many years?
A “buy-and-hold” approach may call for a time horizon that spans a long period of time — maybe even lasting for a decade-long holding period. Suppose such a “buy-and-hold” investor had looked into buying shares of Phillips 66 (NYSE: PSX) back in 2014. Let’s take a look at how such an investment would have worked out for that buy-and-hold investor:
| Start date: | 01/10/2014 |
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| End date: | 01/09/2024 | ||||
| Start price/share: | $78.00 | ||||
| End price/share: | $133.21 | ||||
| Starting shares: | 128.21 | ||||
| Ending shares: | 183.25 | ||||
| Dividends reinvested/share: | $31.10 | ||||
| Total return: | 144.10% | ||||
| Average annual return: | 9.33% | ||||
| Starting investment: | $10,000.00 | ||||
| Ending investment: | $24,406.17 | ||||
The above analysis shows the decade-long investment result worked out well, with an annualized rate of return of 9.33%. This would have turned a $10K investment made 10 years ago into $24,406.17 today (as of 01/09/2024). On a total return basis, that’s a result of 144.10% (something to think about: how might PSX shares perform over the next 10 years?). [These numbers were computed with the Dividend Channel DRIP Returns Calculator.]
Many investors out there refuse to own any stock that lacks a dividend; in the case of Phillips 66, investors have received $31.10/share in dividends these past 10 years examined in the exercise above. This means total return was driven not just by share price, but also by the dividends received (and what the investor did with those dividends). For this exercise, what we’ve done with the dividends is to assume they are reinvestted — i.e. used to purchase additional shares (the calculations use closing price on ex-date).
Based upon the most recent annualized dividend rate of 4.2/share, we calculate that PSX has a current yield of approximately 3.15%. Another interesting datapoint we can examine is ‘yield on cost’ — in other words, we can express the current annualized dividend of 4.2 against the original $78.00/share purchase price. This works out to a yield on cost of 4.04%.
Here’s one more great investment quote before you go:
“In the long run, we are all dead.” — John Maynard Keynes
