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“I buy on the assumption that they could close the market the next day and not reopen it for five years.”

— Warren Buffett

The Warren Buffett investment philosophy calls for a long-term investment horizon, where a five-year holding period, or even longer, fits squarely into the strategy. In that spirit, it can be useful for investors to step back and evaluate how a patient, buy-and-hold approach would have worked in a specific security over a complete market cycle.

Here we examine how such a strategy would have worked out for an investment in Bio-Techne Corp (“Bio-Techne”), which trades on Nasdaq under the ticker TECH. Bio-Techne is a life sciences tools and diagnostics company whose products are used in biomedical research, biopharmaceutical production, and clinical testing. The company generates revenue primarily from consumables and instruments used in areas such as protein analysis, cell and gene therapy research, and liquid biopsy diagnostics.

Using the Dividend Channel DRIP Returns Calculator, we look at the outcome of a hypothetical five-year investment made in early 2021 and held through late March 2026, with dividends reinvested.

Start date: 03/31/2021
$10,000

03/31/2021
  $5,568

03/30/2026
End date: 03/30/2026
Start price/share: $95.48
End price/share: $52.04
Starting shares: 104.73
Ending shares: 106.99
Dividends reinvested/share: $1.60
Total return: -44.32%
Average annual return: -11.05%
Starting investment: $10,000.00
Ending investment: $5,568.39

As the table shows, the five-year investment result worked out poorly, with an annualized rate of return of -11.05%. A hypothetical $10,000 investment made five years ago would have been worth $5,568.39 as of 03/30/2026, assuming dividends were reinvested. On a total return basis, that equates to -44.32%.

Put differently, the share price declined from $95.48 at the starting point to $52.04 at the end of the period, a drop of roughly 45%. Dividend income helped cushion that decline, but not nearly enough to offset the contraction in the valuation and the price reset experienced by many growth-oriented life sciences names as interest rates rose and investor appetite for higher-multiple stocks faded.

For context, the period from 2021 to early 2026 was volatile for the broader equity market and particularly for health care tools and diagnostics companies. After a strong run in the immediate aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, many companies supplying instruments and reagents to research laboratories and biopharma customers faced slowing demand as COVID-specific testing revenue normalized and some customers worked through elevated inventory levels. At the same time, the Federal Reserve’s shift from near-zero interest rates to a materially higher-rate environment tended to compress valuation multiples across growth sectors.

Bio-Techne was not immune to those dynamics. While the company continued to invest in areas such as cell and gene therapy tools and exosome-based diagnostics, the market also scrutinized near-term organic growth rates, capital spending in academic and biopharma end markets, and the impact of acquisitions and integration activity. The result over this five-year window was that a previously premium valuation multiple converged closer to the broader tools and diagnostics group, weighing on share price performance.

[These performance numbers were computed with the Dividend Channel DRIP Returns Calculator. Returns are hypothetical and assume reinvestment of dividends on the ex-dividend date using the closing price. They do not reflect the impact of taxes, transaction costs, or management fees, which would reduce returns for most investors.]

The Role Of Dividends In TECH’s Total Return

Many investors out there refuse to own any stock that lacks a dividend; in the case of Bio-Techne Corp, investors have received $1.60 per share in dividends over the five-year period examined in the exercise above. Bio-Techne initiated a regular quarterly dividend in the mid-2010s and has positioned it as a modest, but recurring, component of shareholder returns, alongside reinvestment in organic growth and acquisitions.

This means total return was driven not just by share price, but also by the dividends received (and what the investor did with those dividends). For this exercise, we have assumed that dividends are reinvested — i.e., used to purchase additional shares — with the calculations using the closing price on the ex-dividend date. That approach mirrors what many dividend reinvestment plan (“DRIP”) participants experience in practice.

Thanks to reinvestment, the share count in this example rose from 104.73 shares at the start to 106.99 shares at the end of the period. While that incremental ownership helped marginally offset the impact of a lower share price, the bulk of the total return outcome was still dictated by the trajectory of the stock itself. Over longer time horizons and in more stable or growing share-price environments, the compounding effect of reinvested dividends can become considerably more meaningful.

Current Yield Versus Yield On Cost

Based upon the most recent annualized dividend rate of $0.32 per share, we calculate that TECH has a current yield of approximately 0.61%. For an income-focused investor, that level of yield would typically be considered modest; Bio-Techne remains primarily a growth- and reinvestment-oriented company rather than a high-yield dividend payer.

Another interesting datapoint to examine is “yield on cost” — in other words, expressing the current annualized dividend of $0.32 against the original $95.48 per share purchase price. This works out to a yield on cost of 0.34%. The figure of 0.64% that results from comparing the $0.32 dividend to an adjusted or alternative reference price simply highlights how sensitive this metric can be to the assumed cost basis.

For long-term investors, yield on cost can be a useful way to visualize how dividend growth over time improves the cash return on the original capital deployed. However, it is important to remember that markets value stocks on the basis of current yield and forward cash flows, not on an individual investor’s historical cost basis. From an economic perspective, what matters today is the opportunity cost of keeping capital in a position with a 0.61% current yield and the company’s prospects for dividend and earnings growth from here.

What This 5-Year Period Illustrates For Long-Term Investors

The headline takeaway for Bio-Techne shareholders over this specific five-year window is straightforward: even a fundamentally solid business operating in attractive end markets can deliver negative total returns if it is purchased at a rich valuation and later experiences a de-rating or a period of slower growth.

At the start of 2021, many life sciences tools and diagnostics companies were trading at elevated earnings and revenue multiples, reflecting strong growth and investor enthusiasm following the pandemic. As conditions normalized, expectations reset, and discount rates rose, that premium became harder to sustain. Bio-Techne’s negative five-year total return captures not only the cyclical and macroeconomic forces at work, but also the risk of paying a high price for quality.

For investors who anchor to Warren Buffett’s long-term philosophy, this case study underlines several enduring lessons:

  • Entry valuation matters, even for high-quality, growing businesses.
  • Sector cycles and macro factors can outweigh company-specific execution over intermediate time frames.
  • Modest dividends can soften, but not fully offset, the impact of substantial multiple compression.
  • Focusing solely on recent performance can be misleading; a stock with poor trailing returns may still offer an attractive prospective return if fundamentals are intact and the valuation has reset.

Looking ahead, investors will likely continue to monitor Bio-Techne’s ability to drive organic growth in its core consumables franchises, execute on its pipeline of new products in areas such as spatial biology and cell and gene therapy, and balance capital allocation among internal investment, acquisitions, and shareholder returns. How TECH shares perform over the next five years will depend not only on company execution but also on the broader backdrop for research funding, biopharma capital spending, and interest rates.

As always, investors should consider their own risk tolerance, time horizon, and diversification needs before drawing conclusions from any single stock’s historical performance, and should supplement backward-looking analysis with a thorough review of current financial statements, competitive positioning, and management guidance.

One more piece of investment wisdom to leave you with:
“How many millionaires do you know who have become wealthy by investing in savings accounts? I rest my case.” — Robert Allen