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“I buy on the assumption that they could close the market the next day and not reopen it for five years.”

— Warren Buffett

The investment philosophy practiced by Warren Buffett calls for investors to take a long-term horizon when making an investment, such as a five-year holding period (or even longer), and to reconsider making the investment in the first place if unable to envision holding the stock for at least five years. In that spirit, it can be instructive to examine how a simple buy-and-hold approach would have treated investors in Bank of America Corp (NYSE: BAC) over a full five-year window.

Below, we look at the performance of an initial $10,000 investment made in BAC on March 30, 2021, with all dividends automatically reinvested, and held through March 27, 2026.

Start date: 03/30/2021
$10,000

03/30/2021
  $13,600

03/27/2026
End date: 03/27/2026
Start price/share: $38.99
End price/share: $46.97
Starting shares: 256.48
Ending shares: 289.60
Dividends reinvested/share: $4.74
Total return: 36.02%
Average annual return: 6.35%
Starting investment: $10,000.00
Ending investment: $13,600.06

As shown above, the five-year investment result for a buy-and-hold investor in Bank of America worked out positively, with an annualized rate of return of 6.35%. That return profile reflects both price appreciation and the impact of reinvested dividends over the period from March 30, 2021 through March 27, 2026.

In dollar terms, a $10,000 investment made five years ago would have grown to $13,600.06 as of March 27, 2026, assuming all dividends were automatically reinvested. On a total return basis, that equates to a cumulative gain of 36.02%. For investors thinking in terms of long-term compounding, this period offers a concrete illustration of how a large, systemically important bank stock can contribute to portfolio growth across a full market cycle.

It is also useful to view BAC’s 6.35% annualized return in context. The five-year span under review included meaningful macro and sector-specific volatility: the tail end of the pandemic-era policy response, a rapid acceleration in inflation, one of the most aggressive Federal Reserve tightening cycles in decades, and bouts of stress in regional banking. Against that backdrop, a mid-single-digit annualized total return from a money-center bank with a sizable dividend component may be regarded as broadly consistent with a defensive, income-oriented equity allocation, albeit trailing the performance of broad U.S. equity benchmarks over the same period.

Dividend policy played an important role in that outcome. Over the five years examined, Bank of America Corp returned $4.74 per share in cash dividends to shareholders. For investors who elected to reinvest those dividends, that cash flow was converted into an additional 33.12 shares over the period (the difference between the starting 256.48 shares and the ending 289.60 shares). This incremental share accumulation is a primary driver of the compounding effect captured in the total return figures above.

Many investors focus on dividend-paying companies precisely because of this compounding potential. Automated reinvestment of dividends into additional shares of stock can be a disciplined way to build exposure over time, especially during periods when share prices are volatile. The above calculations are done with the assumption that dividends received over time are reinvested (the calculations use the closing price on each ex-dividend date to determine how many fractional shares are purchased).

From an income perspective, the current dividend profile is also relevant. Based upon the most recent annualized dividend rate of $1.12 per share, we calculate that BAC has a current yield of approximately 2.38%. For income-focused investors, another informative datapoint is “yield on cost” — in other words, expressing the current annualized dividend of $1.12 against the original $38.99 per share purchase price at the start of the period. This works out to a yield on cost of 2.87%.

Because the dividend rate increased over time during the 2021–2026 window, the aggregate $4.74 per share of dividends received (and reinvested) also represents a material portion of the total return, even though the headline current yield appears modest. For investors adhering to a long-term strategy, progressive dividend growth from a large financial institution can provide a measure of inflation protection as well as a growing income stream relative to the original capital committed.

Looking ahead, investors will naturally ask how BAC shares might perform over the next five years. The answer will depend on several variables that are central to bank earnings and valuation:

  • Interest rate environment: Net interest income for large banks is sensitive to the level and slope of the yield curve. A “higher for longer” rate backdrop, or a steepening yield curve, can be supportive for bank profitability, while a rapid easing cycle can compress net interest margins.
  • Credit quality and loan growth: Trends in consumer credit, commercial lending demand, and provisioning for potential losses will influence both earnings volatility and investor risk appetite toward the sector.
  • Regulatory capital and stress testing: Post-crisis regulatory standards, periodic stress tests, and any changes to capital requirements can affect banks’ capacity to return capital to shareholders via dividends and buybacks.
  • Fee-based businesses and diversification: For a diversified franchise such as Bank of America, non-interest income from wealth management, investment banking, and other fee-based activities can help smooth earnings across cycles.

Investors considering BAC today may wish to evaluate the stock not only on historical performance but also through the lens of valuation (for example, price-to-tangible-book and price-to-earnings ratios relative to history and peers), expected earnings growth, and management’s stated capital return plans. For long-term, dividend-oriented shareholders, the combination of a core U.S. banking franchise, a regular dividend stream, and the potential for continued moderate dividend growth may continue to align with a buy-and-hold approach, while recognizing the inherent cyclicality of the sector.

More investment wisdom to ponder:
“Don’t wait for the perfect time, you will wait forever. Always take advantage of the time you’re given and make it perfect.” — Daymond John