“When we own portions of outstanding businesses with outstanding managements, our favorite holding period is forever.”
— Warren Buffett
The wisdom of Warren Buffett reflects a value-based philosophy about investing that says investors are buying shares in a business, and encourages strategic thinking about investment time horizon. Before placing a buy order for a stock, a great question we can ask is whether we would still be comfortable making the investment if we couldn’t sell it for many years?
A “buy-and-hold” approach may call for a time horizon that spans a long period of time — maybe even lasting for a twenty year holding period. Suppose such a “buy-and-hold” investor had looked into buying shares of Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY) back in 2001. Let’s take a look at how such an investment would have worked out for that buy-and-hold investor:
| Start date: | 01/16/2001 |
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| End date: | 01/13/2021 | ||||
| Start price/share: | $83.25 | ||||
| End price/share: | $185.50 | ||||
| Starting shares: | 120.12 | ||||
| Ending shares: | 226.21 | ||||
| Dividends reinvested/share: | $37.49 | ||||
| Total return: | 319.62% | ||||
| Average annual return: | 7.43% | ||||
| Starting investment: | $10,000.00 | ||||
| Ending investment: | $41,945.18 | ||||
As shown above, the twenty year investment result worked out well, with an annualized rate of return of 7.43%. This would have turned a $10K investment made 20 years ago into $41,945.18 today (as of 01/13/2021). On a total return basis, that’s a result of 319.62% (something to think about: how might LLY shares perform over the next 20 years?). [These numbers were computed with the Dividend Channel DRIP Returns Calculator.]
Always an important consideration with a dividend-paying company is: should we reinvest our dividends?Over the past 20 years, Eli Lilly has paid $37.49/share in dividends. For the above analysis, we assume that the investor reinvests dividends into new shares of stock (for the above calculations, the reinvestment is performed using closing price on ex-div date for that dividend).
Based upon the most recent annualized dividend rate of 3.4/share, we calculate that LLY has a current yield of approximately 1.83%. Another interesting datapoint we can examine is ‘yield on cost’ — in other words, we can express the current annualized dividend of 3.4 against the original $83.25/share purchase price. This works out to a yield on cost of 2.20%.
One more piece of investment wisdom to leave you with:
“When the public is most frightened, only the strong are left, and that’s when the market is in the best possible hands.” — Victor Niederhoffer
