“I buy on the assumption that they could close the market the next day and not reopen it for five years.”
— Warren Buffett
The Warren Buffett investment philosophy calls for a long-term investment horizon, where a five year holding period, or even longer, would fit right into the strategy. How would such a strategy have worked out for an investment into HollyFrontier Corp (NYSE: HFC)? Today, we examine the outcome of a five year investment into the stock back in 2016.
|Average annual return:||-2.63%|
As shown above, the five year investment result worked out poorly, with an annualized rate of return of -2.63%. This would have turned a $10K investment made 5 years ago into $8,751.73 today (as of 01/13/2021). On a total return basis, that’s a result of -12.49% (something to think about: how might HFC shares perform over the next 5 years?). [These numbers were computed with the Dividend Channel DRIP Returns Calculator.]
Beyond share price change, another component of HFC’s total return these past 5 years has been the payment by HollyFrontier Corp of $6.70/share in dividends to shareholders. Automatic reinvestment of dividends can be a wonderful way to compound returns, and for the above calculations we presume that dividends are reinvested into additional shares of stock. (For the purpose of these calcuations, the closing price on ex-date is used).
Based upon the most recent annualized dividend rate of 1.4/share, we calculate that HFC has a current yield of approximately 5.32%. Another interesting datapoint we can examine is ‘yield on cost’ — in other words, we can express the current annualized dividend of 1.4 against the original $36.29/share purchase price. This works out to a yield on cost of 14.66%.
More investment wisdom to ponder:
“Value investing means really asking what are the best values, and not assuming that because something looks expensive that it is, or assuming that because a stock is down in price and trades at low multiples that it is a bargain.” — Bill Miller