“I buy on the assumption that they could close the market the next day and not reopen it for five years.”
— Warren Buffett
Casey’s General Stores, Inc. (NASD: CASY) produced an unusually strong five-year total return for investors who bought shares in late 2021 and held through late 2026. Using a dividend-reinvestment framework, a $10,000 investment in CASY would have grown to $32,482.83, reflecting a 224.82% total return and an annualized return of 26.57%.
That result highlights a central point in long-term equity investing: over multi-year periods, returns are driven by the underlying business, the share price investors are willing to pay for that business, and the contribution from reinvested dividends. In Casey’s case, capital appreciation was the dominant factor, with dividends providing a smaller but still measurable lift to total return.
CASY Five-Year Return at a Glance
| Start date: | 09/29/2021 |
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| End date: | 09/28/2026 | ||||
| Start price/share: | $191.91 | ||||
| End price/share: | $606.24 | ||||
| Starting shares: | 52.11 | ||||
| Ending shares: | 53.58 | ||||
| Dividends reinvested/share: | $9.22 | ||||
| Total return: | 224.82% | ||||
| Average annual return: | 26.57% | ||||
| Starting investment: | $10,000.00 | ||||
| Ending investment: | $32,482.83 | ||||
The outcome was exceptionally strong. A five-year holding period transformed $10,000 into $32,482.83, assuming dividends were reinvested. The figures imply that most of the gain came from the stock’s rise from $191.91 to $606.24 per share, while reinvestment modestly increased the share count from 52.11 to 53.58.
[These numbers were computed with the Dividend Channel DRIP Returns Calculator.]
What Drove the Return?
For Casey’s, the five-year total return was primarily a story of share-price appreciation rather than income. Over the period shown above, investors received $9.22 per share in dividends, and those payments were assumed to be reinvested at the closing price on each ex-dividend date. That reinvestment added roughly 1.47 shares to the original position.
This distinction matters because total return and price return are not the same. Price return captures only the change in the stock price. Total return incorporates both price appreciation and the cash distributions paid along the way, plus the compounding effect if those distributions are reinvested. For lower-yielding companies, reinvested dividends may contribute only a modest share of the result, but they still improve compounding over time.
A Quick Read on Casey’s Dividend Profile
Based on the most recent annualized dividend rate of $2.60 per share, CASY has a current yield of approximately 0.43% using the ending share price shown above. On the original 2021 purchase price of $191.91, that same annualized dividend equates to a yield on cost of about 1.35%.
That is an important clarification. Casey’s has not been a high-yield equity, and the investment case over this period was not centered on current income. Instead, the return profile was driven by a combination of business performance, market re-rating, and steady dividend growth from a relatively low starting yield.
Why the Five-Year View Matters
Short-term price swings can obscure what is actually happening inside a business. A five-year measurement period is long enough to capture multiple earnings cycles, capital allocation decisions, and changes in investor expectations. It also reduces the distortion that can come from focusing on a single quarter or a single year.
In practical terms, the Casey’s example shows how a disciplined holding period can produce an outcome that looks very different from what daily volatility might suggest. A company does not need a high dividend yield to generate strong total returns if earnings growth, margins, store expansion, acquisitions, or valuation expansion support the stock over time.
Key Takeaways
For quick reference:
- A $10,000 investment in Casey’s General Stores on 09/29/2021 grew to $32,482.83 by 09/28/2026.
- Total return was 224.82% with dividends reinvested.
- Annualized return was 26.57% over the five-year period.
- The stock price increase was the main driver of performance.
- Dividends added incremental value through reinvestment, but yield remained relatively low.
Here’s one more investment quote worth keeping in mind:
“The stock market is a device to transfer money from the impatient to the patient.” — Warren Buffett
