“Someone’s sitting in the shade today because someone planted a tree a long time ago.”
— Warren Buffett
The above quote from Warren Buffett is timeless, and brings into focus the choice about time horizon that any investor should think about before buying a stock they are considering. Behind every stock is an actual business; what will that business look like over a twenty year period?
Today, let’s look backwards in time to 2004, and take a look at what happened to investors who asked that very question about Amgen Inc (NASD: AMGN), by taking a look at the investment outcome over a twenty year holding period.
| Start date: | 07/12/2004 |
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| End date: | 07/09/2024 | ||||
| Start price/share: | $53.98 | ||||
| End price/share: | $315.91 | ||||
| Starting shares: | 185.25 | ||||
| Ending shares: | 259.38 | ||||
| Dividends reinvested/share: | $63.38 | ||||
| Total return: | 719.42% | ||||
| Average annual return: | 11.09% | ||||
| Starting investment: | $10,000.00 | ||||
| Ending investment: | $81,987.87 | ||||
As we can see, the twenty year investment result worked out quite well, with an annualized rate of return of 11.09%. This would have turned a $10K investment made 20 years ago into $81,987.87 today (as of 07/09/2024). On a total return basis, that’s a result of 719.42% (something to think about: how might AMGN shares perform over the next 20 years?). [These numbers were computed with the Dividend Channel DRIP Returns Calculator.]
Notice that Amgen Inc paid investors a total of $63.38/share in dividends over the 20 holding period, marking a second component of the total return beyond share price change alone. Much like watering a tree, reinvesting dividends can help an investment to grow over time — for the above calculations we assume dividend reinvestment (and for this exercise the closing price on ex-date is used for the reinvestment of a given dividend).
Based upon the most recent annualized dividend rate of 9/share, we calculate that AMGN has a current yield of approximately 2.85%. Another interesting datapoint we can examine is ‘yield on cost’ — in other words, we can express the current annualized dividend of 9 against the original $53.98/share purchase price. This works out to a yield on cost of 5.28%.
Here’s one more great investment quote before you go:
“You make most of your money in a bear market, you just don’t realize it at the time.” — Shelby Davis
