“Only buy something that you’d be perfectly happy to hold if the market shut down for 10 years.”
— Warren Buffett
A critical pearl of wisdom from Warren Buffett teaches us that with any potential stock investment we may make, as soon as our buy order is filled we will have a choice: to remain a co-owner of that company for the long haul, or to react to the inevitable short-term ups and downs that the stock market is famous for (sometimes sharp ups and downs).
The reality of this choice forces us to challenge our confidence in any given company we might invest in, and to keep our eyes on the long-term time horizon. The market may go up and down in the interim, but over a ten-year holding period, will the investment succeed?
Back in 2016, investors may have been asking themselves that very question about Micron Technology Inc. (NASD: MU), a leading supplier of DRAM and NAND memory and storage solutions used in data centers, smartphones, PCs, automobiles, and a growing range of artificial intelligence workloads. The company is part of a highly cyclical industry in which earnings and share prices can swing dramatically with the memory pricing cycle, which can make it emotionally difficult for investors to hold through downturns.
Yet, as the numbers below illustrate, investors who were willing to endure those cycles and simply hold on saw extraordinary results. Let’s examine what would have happened over a ten-year holding period, had you invested in MU shares back in 2016 and held on.
| Start date: | 03/31/2016 |
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| End date: | 03/30/2026 | ||||
| Start price/share: | $10.47 | ||||
| End price/share: | $321.80 | ||||
| Starting shares: | 955.11 | ||||
| Ending shares: | 979.48 | ||||
| Dividends reinvested/share: | $2.17 | ||||
| Total return: | 3,051.96% | ||||
| Average annual return: | 41.19% | ||||
| Starting investment: | $10,000.00 | ||||
| Ending investment: | $315,101.02 | ||||
As we can see, the ten-year investment result worked out exceptionally well, with an annualized rate of return of 41.19%. This would have turned a $10K investment made 10 years ago into $315,101.02 today (as of 03/30/2026). On a total return basis, that is a result of 3,051.96%.
To put that figure into context, a broad U.S. equity benchmark such as the S&P 500 historically has generated annualized total returns in the high single digits over long periods. Compounding at more than 40% a year over a decade is therefore an outlier outcome, and it underscores both the potential and the risks inherent in concentrated exposure to a single, cyclical technology name. Over that period, Micron shares experienced multiple drawdowns in excess of 30% as the industry worked through oversupply, trade tensions, and macroeconomic uncertainty, before benefiting from secular demand tied to cloud computing, 5G, and more recently, artificial intelligence accelerators in data centers.
Dividends are always an important investment factor to consider, and Micron Technology Inc. has paid $2.17/share in dividends to shareholders over the past 10 years we looked at above. Many an investor will only invest in stocks that pay dividends, so this component of total return is always an important consideration. Automated reinvestment of dividends into additional shares of stock can be a powerful way for an investor to compound returns over time, particularly when share prices are temporarily depressed.
The above calculations are done with the assumption that dividends received over time are reinvested through a dividend reinvestment plan, or DRIP (the calculations use the closing price on ex-date). Even in the case of Micron, where the cash yield has been modest, reinvestment added to the share count over the decade, modestly enhancing the ending value of the position.
Based upon the most recent annualized dividend rate of 0.60/share, we calculate that MU has a current yield of approximately 0.19%. Another interesting data point we can examine is “yield on cost” — in other words, we can express the current annualized dividend of 0.60 against the original $10.47/share purchase price. This works out to a yield on cost of 1.81%.
While that figure is still low compared with traditional income-oriented sectors such as utilities or real estate investment trusts, it highlights a key distinction for investors: in high-growth, innovation-driven businesses like Micron, the primary driver of long-run total return is typically capital appreciation, with dividends playing a secondary role. For income-focused investors, Micron may therefore be more suitable as a satellite holding rather than a core income position.
Looking ahead, investors considering Micron today need to recognize that the same forces that powered returns over the last decade — rapid data growth, rising memory intensity in devices, and new demand from AI workloads — also come with continued cyclicality in pricing and profitability. Long-term shareholders will likely need to maintain a temperament consistent with Buffett’s counsel: a willingness to hold through volatility and focus on the business’s multi-year earnings power rather than quarterly fluctuations.
None of this guarantees how MU shares will perform over the next 10 years, and the extraordinary returns shown above should not be extrapolated. They do, however, offer a concrete case study in how a disciplined, long-horizon approach can harness the upside of a structurally important technology franchise while navigating a volatile industry structure.
One more piece of investment wisdom to leave you with:
“Calling someone who trades actively in the market an investor is like calling someone who repeatedly engages in one-night stands a romantic.” — Warren Buffett
