“Only buy something that you’d be perfectly happy to hold if the market shut down for 10 years.”
— Warren Buffett
The Warren Buffett investment philosophy calls for a long-term investment horizon, where a decade-long holding period, or even longer, would fit right into the strategy. For investors evaluating that approach, it can be instructive to look back at how a buy-and-hold position would actually have performed over a 10-year window.
Here, we examine how such a strategy would have worked out for an investment in Fidelity National Information Services Inc (NYSE: FIS), a leading provider of financial technology solutions to banks, capital markets participants, and merchants worldwide. Specifically, we look at the outcome of a hypothetical $10,000 investment initiated in March 2016 and held through March 2026, with dividends reinvested.
| Start date: | 03/14/2016 |
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| End date: | 03/11/2026 | ||||
| Start price/share: | $62.80 | ||||
| End price/share: | $50.16 | ||||
| Starting shares: | 159.24 | ||||
| Ending shares: | 191.03 | ||||
| Dividends reinvested/share: | $15.28 | ||||
| Total return: | -4.18% | ||||
| Average annual return: | -0.43% | ||||
| Starting investment: | $10,000.00 | ||||
| Ending investment: | $9,578.34 | ||||
As we can see, this particular decade-long investment result worked out poorly for long-term shareholders. Including reinvested dividends, the annualized rate of return was -0.43%. That would have turned a $10,000 investment made 10 years ago into $9,578.34 as of 03/11/2026, a modest erosion of capital in nominal terms.
On a total return basis, the outcome was -4.18%, despite the fact that FIS paid regular dividends throughout the period and operates in a structurally growing industry. The path along the way was far from smooth; FIS shares experienced meaningful volatility, including a strong advance from 2016 through late 2021 followed by a sharp drawdown as investors reassessed growth expectations, integration risk, and balance sheet leverage associated with major acquisitions.
It is also worth noting that these figures do not adjust for inflation. When price level changes over a decade are considered, the real (inflation-adjusted) purchasing power of that $9,578.34 would be lower than the nominal figure suggests. From a long-term wealth preservation standpoint, a slightly negative nominal return over 10 years effectively translates into a more significant loss of real value.
FIS has been an active consolidator in the financial technology space. Over the past decade, the company expanded its footprint in banking and capital markets processing, and in 2019 completed the transformative acquisition of Worldpay, moving more deeply into merchant acquiring and payments. While these moves increased scale and revenue, they also added complexity. In subsequent years, management reversed course by separating the merchant business, as investors grew concerned about integration challenges, competitive pressure in payments, and the level of debt on the balance sheet. These strategic shifts and changing market perceptions contributed to the disappointing 10-year share price outcome reflected above.
[These numbers were computed with the Dividend Channel DRIP Returns Calculator.]
Dividend Contribution and Reinvestment Effect
Dividends are always an important investment factor to consider, and Fidelity National Information Services Inc has paid $15.28/share in dividends to shareholders over the 10-year period reviewed above. For income-focused investors, this stream of cash distributions helps to offset capital volatility and can provide a meaningful portion of total return, even when the share price underperforms.
Many investors will only invest in stocks that pay dividends, so this component of total return is always an important consideration. Automated reinvestment of dividends into additional shares of stock can be a powerful way for an investor to compound their returns. In this case, reinvestment increased the share count from 159.24 to 191.03 shares by March 2026, partially cushioning the impact of a lower ending share price.
The above calculations are done with the assumption that dividends received over time are reinvested (the calculations use the closing price on the ex-dividend date). In practice, investors may choose to take dividends in cash instead, which would change both the ending share count and final portfolio value shown here.
Current Yield and Yield on Cost
Based upon the most recent annualized dividend rate of $1.76/share, we calculate that FIS has a current yield of approximately 3.51%. That compares with the company’s historical yield, which has generally been lower during periods when the share price was higher. The elevated current yield reflects, in part, the recent share price weakness.
Another interesting data point we can examine is “yield on cost” — in other words, we can express the current annualized dividend of $1.76 against the original $62.80/share purchase price. This works out to a yield on cost of 5.59%. While yield on cost is not a forward-looking return metric, it can provide existing long-term shareholders with context on how their income stream has grown relative to the amount originally invested.
Over the last decade, FIS has a track record of regularly increasing its dividend, reflecting both earnings growth and management’s commitment to returning capital to shareholders. However, in this case, dividend growth and reinvestment were not sufficient to fully offset the decline in the share price over the measurement period.
Interpreting a Negative 10-Year Return
For investors inspired by the Buffett approach to “owning” businesses for a decade or longer, FIS is a reminder that even established franchises in attractive end markets can deliver disappointing long-run equity returns if acquisition execution, capital allocation, or market expectations do not ultimately line up with reality.
Several broader lessons emerge from this 10-year snapshot:
- Entry valuation matters. Buying quality franchises at elevated valuation multiples can suppress future returns, particularly if earnings growth later slows.
- Capital structure and M&A strategy carry risk. Aggressive acquisition programs funded with debt can weigh on shareholder returns if synergies disappoint or if the market later demands deleveraging.
- Dividends help but are not a guarantee. A steady and growing dividend can mitigate drawdowns, but it cannot fully protect investors from substantial price compression over time.
- Industry tailwinds are not enough. FIS operates in financial technology, a secular growth area, yet stock-level outcomes still depend heavily on company-specific execution.
As always, past performance does not guarantee future results. The fact that the last 10 years have been challenging for FIS shareholders does not, by itself, determine what the next 10 years of returns will look like. Investors considering FIS today would need to assess the company’s current strategy, balance sheet, competitive position, and valuation in light of their own risk tolerance and return objectives.
One more piece of investment wisdom to leave you with:
“It’s not always easy to do what’s not popular, but that’s where you make your money. Buy stocks that look bad to less careful investors and hang on until their real value is recognized.” — John Neff
