“Someone’s sitting in the shade today because someone planted a tree a long time ago.”
— Warren Buffett
The wisdom of Warren Buffett reflects a value-based philosophy about investing that says investors are buying shares in a business, and encourages strategic thinking about investment time horizon. Before placing a buy order for a stock, a great question we can ask is whether we would still be comfortable making the investment if we couldn’t sell it for many years?
A “buy-and-hold” approach may call for a time horizon that spans a long period of time — maybe even lasting for a two-decade holding period. Suppose such a “buy-and-hold” investor had looked into buying shares of PepsiCo Inc (NASD: PEP) back in 2004. Let’s take a look at how such an investment would have worked out for that buy-and-hold investor:
| Start date: | 11/22/2004 |
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| End date: | 11/19/2024 | ||||
| Start price/share: | $51.22 | ||||
| End price/share: | $156.72 | ||||
| Starting shares: | 195.24 | ||||
| Ending shares: | 338.21 | ||||
| Dividends reinvested/share: | $56.06 | ||||
| Total return: | 430.05% | ||||
| Average annual return: | 8.69% | ||||
| Starting investment: | $10,000.00 | ||||
| Ending investment: | $52,965.13 | ||||
As we can see, the two-decade investment result worked out well, with an annualized rate of return of 8.69%. This would have turned a $10K investment made 20 years ago into $52,965.13 today (as of 11/19/2024). On a total return basis, that’s a result of 430.05% (something to think about: how might PEP shares perform over the next 20 years?). [These numbers were computed with the Dividend Channel DRIP Returns Calculator.]
Notice that PepsiCo Inc paid investors a total of $56.06/share in dividends over the 20 holding period, marking a second component of the total return beyond share price change alone. Much like watering a tree, reinvesting dividends can help an investment to grow over time — for the above calculations we assume dividend reinvestment (and for this exercise the closing price on ex-date is used for the reinvestment of a given dividend).
Based upon the most recent annualized dividend rate of 5.42/share, we calculate that PEP has a current yield of approximately 3.46%. Another interesting datapoint we can examine is ‘yield on cost’ — in other words, we can express the current annualized dividend of 5.42 against the original $51.22/share purchase price. This works out to a yield on cost of 6.76%.
One more investment quote to leave you with:
“We ignore outlooks and forecasts… we’re lousy at it and we admit it … everyone else is lousy too, but most people won’t admit it.” — Martin Whitman
