“Only buy something that you’d be perfectly happy to hold if the market shut down for 10 years.”
— Warren Buffett
Investors can learn a lot from Warren Buffett, whose above quote teaches the importance of thinking about investment time horizon, and asking ourselves before buying any given stock: can we envision holding onto it for years — even a ten year holding period possibly?
Suppose a “buy-and-hold” investor was considering an investment into Pfizer Inc (NYSE: PFE) back in 2014: back then, such an investor may have been pondering this very same question. Had they answered “yes” to a full ten year investment time horizon and then actually held for these past 10 years, here’s how that investment would have turned out.
| Start date: | 07/31/2014 |
|
|||
| End date: | 07/30/2024 | ||||
| Start price/share: | $27.23 | ||||
| End price/share: | $31.39 | ||||
| Starting shares: | 367.24 | ||||
| Ending shares: | 541.61 | ||||
| Dividends reinvested/share: | $13.82 | ||||
| Total return: | 70.01% | ||||
| Average annual return: | 5.45% | ||||
| Starting investment: | $10,000.00 | ||||
| Ending investment: | $17,005.61 | ||||
As we can see, the ten year investment result worked out well, with an annualized rate of return of 5.45%. This would have turned a $10K investment made 10 years ago into $17,005.61 today (as of 07/30/2024). On a total return basis, that’s a result of 70.01% (something to think about: how might PFE shares perform over the next 10 years?). [These numbers were computed with the Dividend Channel DRIP Returns Calculator.]
Notice that Pfizer Inc paid investors a total of $13.82/share in dividends over the 10 holding period, marking a second component of the total return beyond share price change alone. Much like watering a tree, reinvesting dividends can help an investment to grow over time — for the above calculations we assume dividend reinvestment (and for this exercise the closing price on ex-date is used for the reinvestment of a given dividend).
Based upon the most recent annualized dividend rate of 1.68/share, we calculate that PFE has a current yield of approximately 5.35%. Another interesting datapoint we can examine is ‘yield on cost’ — in other words, we can express the current annualized dividend of 1.68 against the original $27.23/share purchase price. This works out to a yield on cost of 19.65%.
One more piece of investment wisdom to leave you with:
“Value investing is at its core the marriage of a contrarian streak and a calculator.” — Seth Klarman
