“I buy on the assumption that they could close the market the next day and not reopen it for five years.”
— Warren Buffett
Investors can learn a lot from Warren Buffett, whose above quote teaches the importance of thinking about investment time horizon, and asking ourselves before buying any given stock: can we envision holding onto it for years — even a five year holding period possibly?
Suppose a “buy-and-hold” investor was considering an investment into Exxon Mobil Corp (NYSE: XOM) back in 2019: back then, such an investor may have been pondering this very same question. Had they answered “yes” to a full five year investment time horizon and then actually held for these past 5 years, here’s how that investment would have turned out.
| Start date: | 04/03/2019 |
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| End date: | 04/02/2024 | ||||
| Start price/share: | $80.90 | ||||
| End price/share: | $119.28 | ||||
| Starting shares: | 123.61 | ||||
| Ending shares: | 159.44 | ||||
| Dividends reinvested/share: | $17.76 | ||||
| Total return: | 90.18% | ||||
| Average annual return: | 13.71% | ||||
| Starting investment: | $10,000.00 | ||||
| Ending investment: | $19,017.18 | ||||
As shown above, the five year investment result worked out quite well, with an annualized rate of return of 13.71%. This would have turned a $10K investment made 5 years ago into $19,017.18 today (as of 04/02/2024). On a total return basis, that’s a result of 90.18% (something to think about: how might XOM shares perform over the next 5 years?). [These numbers were computed with the Dividend Channel DRIP Returns Calculator.]
Notice that Exxon Mobil Corp paid investors a total of $17.76/share in dividends over the 5 holding period, marking a second component of the total return beyond share price change alone. Much like watering a tree, reinvesting dividends can help an investment to grow over time — for the above calculations we assume dividend reinvestment (and for this exercise the closing price on ex-date is used for the reinvestment of a given dividend).
Based upon the most recent annualized dividend rate of 3.8/share, we calculate that XOM has a current yield of approximately 3.19%. Another interesting datapoint we can examine is ‘yield on cost’ — in other words, we can express the current annualized dividend of 3.8 against the original $80.90/share purchase price. This works out to a yield on cost of 3.94%.
More investment wisdom to ponder:
“The emotional burden of trading is substantial; on any given day, I could lose millions of dollars. If you personalize these losses, you can’t trade.” — Bruce Kovner
