“I buy on the assumption that they could close the market the next day and not reopen it for five years.”
— Warren Buffett
The above quote from Warren Buffett is timeless, and brings into focus the choice about time horizon that any investor should think about before buying a stock they are considering. Behind every stock is an actual business; what will that business look like over a five year period?
Today, let’s look backwards in time to 2018, and take a look at what happened to investors who asked that very question about Hartford Financial Services Group Inc. (NYSE: HIG), by taking a look at the investment outcome over a five year holding period.
| Start date: | 10/11/2018 |
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| End date: | 10/10/2023 | ||||
| Start price/share: | $46.82 | ||||
| End price/share: | $71.00 | ||||
| Starting shares: | 213.58 | ||||
| Ending shares: | 241.26 | ||||
| Dividends reinvested/share: | $7.09 | ||||
| Total return: | 71.30% | ||||
| Average annual return: | 11.37% | ||||
| Starting investment: | $10,000.00 | ||||
| Ending investment: | $17,133.30 | ||||
The above analysis shows the five year investment result worked out quite well, with an annualized rate of return of 11.37%. This would have turned a $10K investment made 5 years ago into $17,133.30 today (as of 10/10/2023). On a total return basis, that’s a result of 71.30% (something to think about: how might HIG shares perform over the next 5 years?). [These numbers were computed with the Dividend Channel DRIP Returns Calculator.]
Notice that Hartford Financial Services Group Inc. paid investors a total of $7.09/share in dividends over the 5 holding period, marking a second component of the total return beyond share price change alone. Much like watering a tree, reinvesting dividends can help an investment to grow over time — for the above calculations we assume dividend reinvestment (and for this exercise the closing price on ex-date is used for the reinvestment of a given dividend).
Based upon the most recent annualized dividend rate of 1.7/share, we calculate that HIG has a current yield of approximately 2.39%. Another interesting datapoint we can examine is ‘yield on cost’ — in other words, we can express the current annualized dividend of 1.7 against the original $46.82/share purchase price. This works out to a yield on cost of 5.10%.
Here’s one more great investment quote before you go:
“The function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.” — John Galbraith
