“When we own portions of outstanding businesses with outstanding managements, our favorite holding period is forever.”
— Warren Buffett
Investors can learn a lot from Warren Buffett, whose above quote teaches the importance of thinking about investment time horizon, and asking ourselves before buying any given stock: can we envision holding onto it for years — even a two-decade holding period possibly?
Suppose a “buy-and-hold” investor was considering an investment into International Business Machines Corp (NYSE: IBM) back in 2003: back then, such an investor may have been pondering this very same question. Had they answered “yes” to a full two-decade investment time horizon and then actually held for these past 20 years, here’s how that investment would have turned out.
| Start date: | 09/22/2003 |
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| End date: | 09/19/2023 | ||||
| Start price/share: | $87.37 | ||||
| End price/share: | $146.52 | ||||
| Starting shares: | 114.46 | ||||
| Ending shares: | 201.34 | ||||
| Dividends reinvested/share: | $75.72 | ||||
| Total return: | 195.01% | ||||
| Average annual return: | 5.56% | ||||
| Starting investment: | $10,000.00 | ||||
| Ending investment: | $29,520.00 | ||||
As shown above, the two-decade investment result worked out well, with an annualized rate of return of 5.56%. This would have turned a $10K investment made 20 years ago into $29,520.00 today (as of 09/19/2023). On a total return basis, that’s a result of 195.01% (something to think about: how might IBM shares perform over the next 20 years?). [These numbers were computed with the Dividend Channel DRIP Returns Calculator.]
Notice that International Business Machines Corp paid investors a total of $75.72/share in dividends over the 20 holding period, marking a second component of the total return beyond share price change alone. Much like watering a tree, reinvesting dividends can help an investment to grow over time — for the above calculations we assume dividend reinvestment (and for this exercise the closing price on ex-date is used for the reinvestment of a given dividend).
Based upon the most recent annualized dividend rate of 6.64/share, we calculate that IBM has a current yield of approximately 4.53%. Another interesting datapoint we can examine is ‘yield on cost’ — in other words, we can express the current annualized dividend of 6.64 against the original $87.37/share purchase price. This works out to a yield on cost of 5.18%.
One more investment quote to leave you with:
“You make most of your money in a bear market, you just don’t realize it at the time.” — Shelby Davis
