“When we own portions of outstanding businesses with outstanding managements, our favorite holding period is forever.”
— Warren Buffett
Investors can learn a lot from Warren Buffett, whose above quote teaches the importance of thinking about investment time horizon, and asking ourselves before buying any given stock: can we envision holding onto it for years — even a twenty year holding period possibly?
Suppose a “buy-and-hold” investor was considering an investment into Allstate Corp (NYSE: ALL) back in 2003: back then, such an investor may have been pondering this very same question. Had they answered “yes” to a full twenty year investment time horizon and then actually held for these past 20 years, here’s how that investment would have turned out.
| Start date: | 04/11/2003 |
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| End date: | 04/10/2023 | ||||
| Start price/share: | $35.10 | ||||
| End price/share: | $116.11 | ||||
| Starting shares: | 284.90 | ||||
| Ending shares: | 460.71 | ||||
| Dividends reinvested/share: | $30.22 | ||||
| Total return: | 434.93% | ||||
| Average annual return: | 8.74% | ||||
| Starting investment: | $10,000.00 | ||||
| Ending investment: | $53,479.26 | ||||
As we can see, the twenty year investment result worked out well, with an annualized rate of return of 8.74%. This would have turned a $10K investment made 20 years ago into $53,479.26 today (as of 04/10/2023). On a total return basis, that’s a result of 434.93% (something to think about: how might ALL shares perform over the next 20 years?). [These numbers were computed with the Dividend Channel DRIP Returns Calculator.]
Notice that Allstate Corp paid investors a total of $30.22/share in dividends over the 20 holding period, marking a second component of the total return beyond share price change alone. Much like watering a tree, reinvesting dividends can help an investment to grow over time — for the above calculations we assume dividend reinvestment (and for this exercise the closing price on ex-date is used for the reinvestment of a given dividend).
Based upon the most recent annualized dividend rate of 3.56/share, we calculate that ALL has a current yield of approximately 3.07%. Another interesting datapoint we can examine is ‘yield on cost’ — in other words, we can express the current annualized dividend of 3.56 against the original $35.10/share purchase price. This works out to a yield on cost of 8.75%.
Another great investment quote to think about:
“Although it’s easy to forget sometimes, a share is not a lottery ticket… it’s part-ownership of a business.” — Peter Lynch
