“Only buy something that you’d be perfectly happy to hold if the market shut down for 10 years.”
— Warren Buffett
The wisdom of Warren Buffett reflects a value-based philosophy about investing that says investors are buying shares in a business, and encourages strategic thinking about investment time horizon. Before placing a buy order for a stock, a great question we can ask is whether we would still be comfortable making the investment if we couldn’t sell it for many years?
A “buy-and-hold” approach may call for a time horizon that spans a long period of time — maybe even lasting for a decade-long holding period. Suppose such a “buy-and-hold” investor had looked into buying shares of Kroger Co (NYSE: KR) back in 2013. Let’s take a look at how such an investment would have worked out for that buy-and-hold investor:
| Start date: | 03/18/2013 |
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| End date: | 03/16/2023 | ||||
| Start price/share: | $15.83 | ||||
| End price/share: | $47.13 | ||||
| Starting shares: | 631.71 | ||||
| Ending shares: | 754.79 | ||||
| Dividends reinvested/share: | $5.70 | ||||
| Total return: | 255.73% | ||||
| Average annual return: | 13.53% | ||||
| Starting investment: | $10,000.00 | ||||
| Ending investment: | $35,571.84 | ||||
As shown above, the decade-long investment result worked out quite well, with an annualized rate of return of 13.53%. This would have turned a $10K investment made 10 years ago into $35,571.84 today (as of 03/16/2023). On a total return basis, that’s a result of 255.73% (something to think about: how might KR shares perform over the next 10 years?). [These numbers were computed with the Dividend Channel DRIP Returns Calculator.]
Notice that Kroger Co paid investors a total of $5.70/share in dividends over the 10 holding period, marking a second component of the total return beyond share price change alone. Much like watering a tree, reinvesting dividends can help an investment to grow over time — for the above calculations we assume dividend reinvestment (and for this exercise the closing price on ex-date is used for the reinvestment of a given dividend).
Based upon the most recent annualized dividend rate of 1.04/share, we calculate that KR has a current yield of approximately 2.21%. Another interesting datapoint we can examine is ‘yield on cost’ — in other words, we can express the current annualized dividend of 1.04 against the original $15.83/share purchase price. This works out to a yield on cost of 13.96%.
One more piece of investment wisdom to leave you with:
“In the long run, it’s not just how much money you make that will determine your future prosperity. It’s how much of that money you put to work by saving it and investing it.” — Peter Lynch
