“I buy on the assumption that they could close the market the next day and not reopen it for five years.”
— Warren Buffett
A critical pearl of wisdom from Warren Buffett teaches us that with any potential stock investment we may make, as soon as our buy order is filled we will have a choice: to remain a co-owner of that company for the long haul, or to react to the inevitable short-term ups and downs that the stock market is famous for (sometimes sharp ups and downs).
The reality of this choice forces us to challenge our confidence in any given company we might invest into, and keep our eyes on the long-term time horizon. The market may go up and down the interim, but over a five year holding period, will the investment succeed?
Back in 2017, investors may have been asking themselves that very question about ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP). Let’s examine what would have happened over a five year holding period, had you invested in COP shares back in 2017 and held on.
| Start date: | 04/04/2017 |
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| End date: | 04/01/2022 | ||||
| Start price/share: | $49.73 | ||||
| End price/share: | $100.58 | ||||
| Starting shares: | 201.09 | ||||
| Ending shares: | 230.97 | ||||
| Dividends reinvested/share: | $7.69 | ||||
| Total return: | 132.31% | ||||
| Average annual return: | 18.38% | ||||
| Starting investment: | $10,000.00 | ||||
| Ending investment: | $23,226.84 | ||||
The above analysis shows the five year investment result worked out exceptionally well, with an annualized rate of return of 18.38%. This would have turned a $10K investment made 5 years ago into $23,226.84 today (as of 04/01/2022). On a total return basis, that’s a result of 132.31% (something to think about: how might COP shares perform over the next 5 years?). [These numbers were computed with the Dividend Channel DRIP Returns Calculator.]
Notice that ConocoPhillips paid investors a total of $7.69/share in dividends over the 5 holding period, marking a second component of the total return beyond share price change alone. Much like watering a tree, reinvesting dividends can help an investment to grow over time — for the above calculations we assume dividend reinvestment (and for this exercise the closing price on ex-date is used for the reinvestment of a given dividend).
Based upon the most recent annualized dividend rate of 1.20/share, we calculate that COP has a current yield of approximately 1.19%. Another interesting datapoint we can examine is ‘yield on cost’ — in other words, we can express the current annualized dividend of 1.20 against the original $49.73/share purchase price. This works out to a yield on cost of 2.39%.
One more piece of investment wisdom to leave you with:
“It is remarkable how much long-term advantage people like us have gotten by trying to be consistently not stupid, instead of trying to be very intelligent.” — Charlie Munger
