“I buy on the assumption that they could close the market the next day and not reopen it for five years.”
— Warren Buffett
The wisdom of Warren Buffett reflects a value-based philosophy about investing that says investors are buying shares in a business, and encourages strategic thinking about investment time horizon. Before placing a buy order for a stock, a great question we can ask is whether we would still be comfortable making the investment if we couldn’t sell it for many years?
A “buy-and-hold” approach may call for a time horizon that spans a long period of time — maybe even lasting for a five year holding period. Suppose such a “buy-and-hold” investor had looked into buying shares of EOG Resources, Inc. (NYSE: EOG) back in 2017. Let’s take a look at how such an investment would have worked out for that buy-and-hold investor:
| Start date: | 04/03/2017 |
|
|||
| End date: | 03/31/2022 | ||||
| Start price/share: | $96.96 | ||||
| End price/share: | $119.23 | ||||
| Starting shares: | 103.14 | ||||
| Ending shares: | 117.17 | ||||
| Dividends reinvested/share: | $10.05 | ||||
| Total return: | 39.70% | ||||
| Average annual return: | 6.92% | ||||
| Starting investment: | $10,000.00 | ||||
| Ending investment: | $13,968.04 | ||||
The above analysis shows the five year investment result worked out well, with an annualized rate of return of 6.92%. This would have turned a $10K investment made 5 years ago into $13,968.04 today (as of 03/31/2022). On a total return basis, that’s a result of 39.70% (something to think about: how might EOG shares perform over the next 5 years?). [These numbers were computed with the Dividend Channel DRIP Returns Calculator.]
Notice that EOG Resources, Inc. paid investors a total of $10.05/share in dividends over the 5 holding period, marking a second component of the total return beyond share price change alone. Much like watering a tree, reinvesting dividends can help an investment to grow over time — for the above calculations we assume dividend reinvestment (and for this exercise the closing price on ex-date is used for the reinvestment of a given dividend).
Based upon the most recent annualized dividend rate of 3/share, we calculate that EOG has a current yield of approximately 2.52%. Another interesting datapoint we can examine is ‘yield on cost’ — in other words, we can express the current annualized dividend of 3 against the original $96.96/share purchase price. This works out to a yield on cost of 2.60%.
One more investment quote to leave you with:
“Value investing requires a great deal of hard work, unusually strict discipline, and a long-term investment horizon. Few are willing and able to devote sufficient time and effort to become value investors, and only a fraction of those have the proper mind-set to succeed.” — Seth Klarman
