“I buy on the assumption that they could close the market the next day and not reopen it for five years.”
— Warren Buffett
The wisdom of Warren Buffett reflects a value-based philosophy about investing that says investors are buying shares in a business, and encourages strategic thinking about investment time horizon. Before placing a buy order for a stock, a great question we can ask is whether we would still be comfortable making the investment if we couldn’t sell it for many years?
A “buy-and-hold” approach may call for a time horizon that spans a long period of time — maybe even lasting for a five year holding period. Suppose such a “buy-and-hold” investor had looked into buying shares of Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE: GS) back in 2017. Let’s take a look at how such an investment would have worked out for that buy-and-hold investor:
| Start date: | 01/17/2017 |
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| End date: | 01/14/2022 | ||||
| Start price/share: | $235.74 | ||||
| End price/share: | $380.94 | ||||
| Starting shares: | 42.42 | ||||
| Ending shares: | 46.31 | ||||
| Dividends reinvested/share: | $21.70 | ||||
| Total return: | 76.43% | ||||
| Average annual return: | 12.04% | ||||
| Starting investment: | $10,000.00 | ||||
| Ending investment: | $17,643.92 | ||||
The above analysis shows the five year investment result worked out quite well, with an annualized rate of return of 12.04%. This would have turned a $10K investment made 5 years ago into $17,643.92 today (as of 01/14/2022). On a total return basis, that’s a result of 76.43% (something to think about: how might GS shares perform over the next 5 years?). [These numbers were computed with the Dividend Channel DRIP Returns Calculator.]
Notice that Goldman Sachs Group Inc paid investors a total of $21.70/share in dividends over the 5 holding period, marking a second component of the total return beyond share price change alone. Much like watering a tree, reinvesting dividends can help an investment to grow over time — for the above calculations we assume dividend reinvestment (and for this exercise the closing price on ex-date is used for the reinvestment of a given dividend).
Based upon the most recent annualized dividend rate of 8/share, we calculate that GS has a current yield of approximately 2.10%. Another interesting datapoint we can examine is ‘yield on cost’ — in other words, we can express the current annualized dividend of 8 against the original $235.74/share purchase price. This works out to a yield on cost of 0.89%.
Here’s one more great investment quote before you go:
“Smart investing doesn’t consist of buying good assets but of buying assets well. This is a very, very important distinction that very, very few people understand.” — Howard Marks
