“Only buy something that you’d be perfectly happy to hold if the market shut down for 10 years.”
— Warren Buffett
One of the most important things investors can learn from Warren Buffett, is about how they approach their time horizon for an investment into a stock under consideration. Because immediately after buying shares of a given stock, investors will then be able to check on the day-to-day (and even minute-by-minute) market value. Some days the stock market will be up, other days down. These daily fluctuations can often distract from the long-term view. Today, we look at the result of a ten year holding period for an investor who was considering Archer Daniels Midland Co. (NYSE: ADM) back in 2012, bought the stock, ignored the market’s ups and downs, and simply held through to today.
| Start date: | 01/20/2012 |
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| End date: | 01/19/2022 | ||||
| Start price/share: | $30.04 | ||||
| End price/share: | $71.00 | ||||
| Starting shares: | 332.89 | ||||
| Ending shares: | 437.78 | ||||
| Dividends reinvested/share: | $11.68 | ||||
| Total return: | 210.82% | ||||
| Average annual return: | 12.00% | ||||
| Starting investment: | $10,000.00 | ||||
| Ending investment: | $31,077.77 | ||||
As we can see, the ten year investment result worked out quite well, with an annualized rate of return of 12.00%. This would have turned a $10K investment made 10 years ago into $31,077.77 today (as of 01/19/2022). On a total return basis, that’s a result of 210.82% (something to think about: how might ADM shares perform over the next 10 years?). [These numbers were computed with the Dividend Channel DRIP Returns Calculator.]
Always an important consideration with a dividend-paying company is: should we reinvest our dividends?Over the past 10 years, Archer Daniels Midland Co. has paid $11.68/share in dividends. For the above analysis, we assume that the investor reinvests dividends into new shares of stock (for the above calculations, the reinvestment is performed using closing price on ex-div date for that dividend).
Based upon the most recent annualized dividend rate of 1.48/share, we calculate that ADM has a current yield of approximately 2.08%. Another interesting datapoint we can examine is ‘yield on cost’ — in other words, we can express the current annualized dividend of 1.48 against the original $30.04/share purchase price. This works out to a yield on cost of 6.92%.
Here’s one more great investment quote before you go:
“Thousands of experts study overbought indicators, head-and-shoulder patterns, put-call ratios, the Fed’s policy on money supply…and they can’t predict markets with any useful consistency, any more than the gizzard squeezers could tell the Roman emperors when the Huns would attack.” — Peter Lynch
