“Only buy something that you’d be perfectly happy to hold if the market shut down for 10 years.”
— Warren Buffett
Investors can learn a lot from Warren Buffett, whose above quote teaches the importance of thinking about investment time horizon, and asking ourselves before buying any given stock: can we envision holding onto it for years — even a decade-long holding period possibly?
Suppose a “buy-and-hold” investor was considering an investment into Constellation Brands Inc (NYSE: STZ) back in 2011: back then, such an investor may have been pondering this very same question. Had they answered “yes” to a full decade-long investment time horizon and then actually held for these past 10 years, here’s how that investment would have turned out.
| Start date: | 04/08/2011 |
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| End date: | 04/07/2021 | ||||
| Start price/share: | $21.53 | ||||
| End price/share: | $234.94 | ||||
| Starting shares: | 464.47 | ||||
| Ending shares: | 501.44 | ||||
| Dividends reinvested/share: | $13.88 | ||||
| Total return: | 1,078.08% | ||||
| Average annual return: | 27.96% | ||||
| Starting investment: | $10,000.00 | ||||
| Ending investment: | $117,849.85 | ||||
The above analysis shows the decade-long investment result worked out exceptionally well, with an annualized rate of return of 27.96%. This would have turned a $10K investment made 10 years ago into $117,849.85 today (as of 04/07/2021). On a total return basis, that’s a result of 1,078.08% (something to think about: how might STZ shares perform over the next 10 years?). [These numbers were computed with the Dividend Channel DRIP Returns Calculator.]
Notice that Constellation Brands Inc paid investors a total of $13.88/share in dividends over the 10 holding period, marking a second component of the total return beyond share price change alone. Much like watering a tree, reinvesting dividends can help an investment to grow over time — for the above calculations we assume dividend reinvestment (and for this exercise the closing price on ex-date is used for the reinvestment of a given dividend).
Based upon the most recent annualized dividend rate of 3/share, we calculate that STZ has a current yield of approximately 1.28%. Another interesting datapoint we can examine is ‘yield on cost’ — in other words, we can express the current annualized dividend of 3 against the original $21.53/share purchase price. This works out to a yield on cost of 5.95%.
One more investment quote to leave you with:
“Every once in a while, the market does something so stupid it takes your breath away.” — Jim Cramer
