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“Only buy something that you’d be perfectly happy to hold if the market shut down for 10 years.”

— Warren Buffett

The above quote from Warren Buffett is timeless, and brings into focus the choice about time horizon that any investor should think about before buying a stock they are considering. Behind every stock is an actual business; what will that business look like over a ten year period?

Today, let’s look backwards in time to 2011, and take a look at what happened to investors who asked that very question about General Motors Co (NYSE: GM), by taking a look at the investment outcome over a ten year holding period.

Start date: 03/24/2011
$10,000

03/24/2011
$23,146

03/23/2021
End date: 03/23/2021
Start price/share: $31.39
End price/share: $56.16
Starting shares: 318.57
Ending shares: 412.10
Dividends reinvested/share: $9.04
Total return: 131.43%
Average annual return: 8.75%
Starting investment: $10,000.00
Ending investment: $23,146.87

As we can see, the ten year investment result worked out well, with an annualized rate of return of 8.75%. This would have turned a $10K investment made 10 years ago into $23,146.87 today (as of 03/23/2021). On a total return basis, that’s a result of 131.43% (something to think about: how might GM shares perform over the next 10 years?). [These numbers were computed with the Dividend Channel DRIP Returns Calculator.]

Notice that General Motors Co paid investors a total of $9.04/share in dividends over the 10 holding period, marking a second component of the total return beyond share price change alone. Much like watering a tree, reinvesting dividends can help an investment to grow over time — for the above calculations we assume dividend reinvestment (and for this exercise the closing price on ex-date is used for the reinvestment of a given dividend).

Based upon the most recent annualized dividend rate of 1.52/share, we calculate that GM has a current yield of approximately 0.00%. Another interesting datapoint we can examine is ‘yield on cost’ — in other words, we can express the current annualized dividend of 1.52 against the original $31.39/share purchase price. This works out to a yield on cost of 0.00%.

Another great investment quote to think about:
“Our job is to find a few intelligent things to do, not to keep up with every damn thing in the world.” — Charlie Munger