“Only buy something that you’d be perfectly happy to hold if the market shut down for 10 years.”
— Warren Buffett
One of the most important things investors can learn from Warren Buffett, is about how they approach their time horizon for an investment into a stock under consideration. Because immediately after buying shares of a given stock, investors will then be able to check on the day-to-day (and even minute-by-minute) market value. Some days the stock market will be up, other days down. These daily fluctuations can often distract from the long-term view. Today, we look at the result of a decade-long holding period for an investor who was considering Hershey Company (NYSE: HSY) back in 2010, bought the stock, ignored the market’s ups and downs, and simply held through to today.
| Start date: | 12/06/2010 |
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| End date: | 12/03/2020 | ||||
| Start price/share: | $46.43 | ||||
| End price/share: | $149.83 | ||||
| Starting shares: | 215.38 | ||||
| Ending shares: | 271.77 | ||||
| Dividends reinvested/share: | $22.88 | ||||
| Total return: | 307.19% | ||||
| Average annual return: | 15.07% | ||||
| Starting investment: | $10,000.00 | ||||
| Ending investment: | $40,702.50 | ||||
The above analysis shows the decade-long investment result worked out exceptionally well, with an annualized rate of return of 15.07%. This would have turned a $10K investment made 10 years ago into $40,702.50 today (as of 12/03/2020). On a total return basis, that’s a result of 307.19% (something to think about: how might HSY shares perform over the next 10 years?). [These numbers were computed with the Dividend Channel DRIP Returns Calculator.]
Notice that Hershey Company paid investors a total of $22.88/share in dividends over the 10 holding period, marking a second component of the total return beyond share price change alone. Much like watering a tree, reinvesting dividends can help an investment to grow over time — for the above calculations we assume dividend reinvestment (and for this exercise the closing price on ex-date is used for the reinvestment of a given dividend).
Based upon the most recent annualized dividend rate of 3.216/share, we calculate that HSY has a current yield of approximately 2.15%. Another interesting datapoint we can examine is ‘yield on cost’ — in other words, we can express the current annualized dividend of 3.216 against the original $46.43/share purchase price. This works out to a yield on cost of 4.63%.
Another great investment quote to think about:
“Calling someone who trades actively in the market an investor is like calling someone who repeatedly engages in one-night stands a romantic.” — Warren Buffett
