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“Someone’s sitting in the shade today because someone planted a tree a long time ago.”

— Warren Buffett

The wisdom of Warren Buffett reflects a value-based philosophy about investing that says investors are buying shares in a business, and encourages strategic thinking about investment time horizon. Before placing a buy order for a stock, a great question we can ask is whether we would still be comfortable making the investment if we couldn’t sell it for many years?

A “buy-and-hold” approach may call for a time horizon that spans a long period of time — maybe even lasting for a two-decade holding period. Suppose such a “buy-and-hold” investor had looked into buying shares of Tractor Supply Co. (NASD: TSCO) back in 2000. Let’s take a look at how such an investment would have worked out for that buy-and-hold investor:

Start date: 11/17/2000
$10,000

11/17/2000
$2,923,923

11/16/2020
End date: 11/16/2020
Start price/share: $0.51
End price/share: $132.82
Starting shares: 19,607.84
Ending shares: 22,016.90
Dividends reinvested/share: $8.20
Total return: 29,142.85%
Average annual return: 32.81%
Starting investment: $10,000.00
Ending investment: $2,923,923.52

The above analysis shows the two-decade investment result worked out exceptionally well, with an annualized rate of return of 32.81%. This would have turned a $10K investment made 20 years ago into $2,923,923.52 today (as of 11/16/2020). On a total return basis, that’s a result of 29,142.85% (something to think about: how might TSCO shares perform over the next 20 years?). [These numbers were computed with the Dividend Channel DRIP Returns Calculator.]

Notice that Tractor Supply Co. paid investors a total of $8.20/share in dividends over the 20 holding period, marking a second component of the total return beyond share price change alone. Much like watering a tree, reinvesting dividends can help an investment to grow over time — for the above calculations we assume dividend reinvestment (and for this exercise the closing price on ex-date is used for the reinvestment of a given dividend).

Based upon the most recent annualized dividend rate of 1.6/share, we calculate that TSCO has a current yield of approximately 1.20%. Another interesting datapoint we can examine is ‘yield on cost’ — in other words, we can express the current annualized dividend of 1.6 against the original $0.51/share purchase price. This works out to a yield on cost of 235.29%.

One more piece of investment wisdom to leave you with:
“Opportunities come infrequently. When it rains gold, put out the bucket, not the thimble.” — Warren Buffett