“I buy on the assumption that they could close the market the next day and not reopen it for five years.”
— Warren Buffett
Investors can learn a lot from Warren Buffett, whose above quote teaches the importance of thinking about investment time horizon, and asking ourselves before buying any given stock: can we envision holding onto it for years — even a five year holding period possibly?
Suppose a “buy-and-hold” investor was considering an investment into O’Reilly Automotive, Inc. (NASD: ORLY) back in 2015: back then, such an investor may have been pondering this very same question. Had they answered “yes” to a full five year investment time horizon and then actually held for these past 5 years, here’s how that investment would have turned out.
| Start date: | 10/19/2015 |
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| End date: | 10/16/2020 | ||||
| Start price/share: | $252.22 | ||||
| End price/share: | $467.01 | ||||
| Starting shares: | 39.65 | ||||
| Ending shares: | 39.65 | ||||
| Dividends reinvested/share: | $0.00 | ||||
| Total return: | 85.16% | ||||
| Average annual return: | 13.12% | ||||
| Starting investment: | $10,000.00 | ||||
| Ending investment: | $18,516.13 | ||||
The above analysis shows the five year investment result worked out quite well, with an annualized rate of return of 13.12%. This would have turned a $10K investment made 5 years ago into $18,516.13 today (as of 10/16/2020). On a total return basis, that’s a result of 85.16% (something to think about: how might ORLY shares perform over the next 5 years?). [These numbers were computed with the Dividend Channel DRIP Returns Calculator.]
More investment wisdom to ponder:
“It is remarkable how much long-term advantage people like us have gotten by trying to be consistently not stupid, instead of trying to be very intelligent.” — Charlie Munger
