“Someone’s sitting in the shade today because someone planted a tree a long time ago.”
— Warren Buffett
The investment philosophy practiced by Warren Buffett calls for investors to take a long-term horizon when making an investment, such as a two-decade holding period (or even longer), and reconsider making the investment in the first place if unable to envision holding the stock for at least five years. Today, we look at how such a long-term strategy would have done for investors in Devon Energy Corp. (NYSE: DVN) back in 2000, holding through to today.
| Start date: | 07/10/2000 |
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| End date: | 07/09/2020 | ||||
| Start price/share: | $24.06 | ||||
| End price/share: | $9.80 | ||||
| Starting shares: | 415.63 | ||||
| Ending shares: | 510.94 | ||||
| Dividends reinvested/share: | $9.68 | ||||
| Total return: | -49.93% | ||||
| Average annual return: | -3.40% | ||||
| Starting investment: | $10,000.00 | ||||
| Ending investment: | $5,004.70 | ||||
As we can see, the two-decade investment result worked out poorly, with an annualized rate of return of -3.40%. This would have turned a $10K investment made 20 years ago into $5,004.70 today (as of 07/09/2020). On a total return basis, that’s a result of -49.93% (something to think about: how might DVN shares perform over the next 20 years?). [These numbers were computed with the Dividend Channel DRIP Returns Calculator.]
Many investors out there refuse to own any stock that lacks a dividend; in the case of Devon Energy Corp., investors have received $9.68/share in dividends these past 20 years examined in the exercise above. This means total return was driven not just by share price, but also by the dividends received (and what the investor did with those dividends). For this exercise, what we’ve done with the dividends is to assume they are reinvestted — i.e. used to purchase additional shares (the calculations use closing price on ex-date).
Based upon the most recent annualized dividend rate of .44/share, we calculate that DVN has a current yield of approximately 4.49%. Another interesting datapoint we can examine is ‘yield on cost’ — in other words, we can express the current annualized dividend of .44 against the original $24.06/share purchase price. This works out to a yield on cost of 18.66%.
Another great investment quote to think about:
“Financial peace isn’t the acquisition of stuff. It’s learning to live on less than you make, so you can give money back and have money to invest. You can’t win until you do this.” — Dave Ramsey
