“I buy on the assumption that they could close the market the next day and not reopen it for five years.”
— Warren Buffett
The Warren Buffett investment philosophy calls for a long-term investment horizon, where a five year holding period, or even longer, would fit right into the strategy. How would such a strategy have worked out for an investment into HollyFrontier Corp (NYSE: HFC)? Today, we examine the outcome of a five year investment into the stock back in 2015.
| Start date: | 07/14/2015 |
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| End date: | 07/13/2020 | ||||
| Start price/share: | $46.12 | ||||
| End price/share: | $26.98 | ||||
| Starting shares: | 216.83 | ||||
| Ending shares: | 257.45 | ||||
| Dividends reinvested/share: | $6.66 | ||||
| Total return: | -30.54% | ||||
| Average annual return: | -7.03% | ||||
| Starting investment: | $10,000.00 | ||||
| Ending investment: | $6,944.28 | ||||
The above analysis shows the five year investment result worked out poorly, with an annualized rate of return of -7.03%. This would have turned a $10K investment made 5 years ago into $6,944.28 today (as of 07/13/2020). On a total return basis, that’s a result of -30.54% (something to think about: how might HFC shares perform over the next 5 years?). [These numbers were computed with the Dividend Channel DRIP Returns Calculator.]
Notice that HollyFrontier Corp paid investors a total of $6.66/share in dividends over the 5 holding period, marking a second component of the total return beyond share price change alone. Much like watering a tree, reinvesting dividends can help an investment to grow over time — for the above calculations we assume dividend reinvestment (and for this exercise the closing price on ex-date is used for the reinvestment of a given dividend).
Based upon the most recent annualized dividend rate of 1.4/share, we calculate that HFC has a current yield of approximately 5.19%. Another interesting datapoint we can examine is ‘yield on cost’ — in other words, we can express the current annualized dividend of 1.4 against the original $46.12/share purchase price. This works out to a yield on cost of 11.25%.
Another great investment quote to think about:
“If I’ve learned one thing in this life it’s this: even if you lose, don’t lose the lesson.” — Daymond John
