“Someone’s sitting in the shade today because someone planted a tree a long time ago.”
— Warren Buffett
The Warren Buffett investment philosophy calls for a long-term investment horizon, where a twenty year holding period, or even longer, would fit right into the strategy. How would such a strategy have worked out for an investment into United Parcel Service Inc (NYSE: UPS)? Today, we examine the outcome of a twenty year investment into the stock back in 2000.
| Start date: | 03/27/2000 |
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| End date: | 03/24/2020 | ||||
| Start price/share: | $63.19 | ||||
| End price/share: | $95.26 | ||||
| Starting shares: | 158.26 | ||||
| Ending shares: | 259.30 | ||||
| Dividends reinvested/share: | $41.27 | ||||
| Total return: | 147.01% | ||||
| Average annual return: | 4.62% | ||||
| Starting investment: | $10,000.00 | ||||
| Ending investment: | $24,680.16 | ||||
As shown above, the twenty year investment result worked out as follows, with an annualized rate of return of 4.62%. This would have turned a $10K investment made 20 years ago into $24,680.16 today (as of 03/24/2020). On a total return basis, that’s a result of 147.01% (something to think about: how might UPS shares perform over the next 20 years?). [These numbers were computed with the Dividend Channel DRIP Returns Calculator.]
Many investors out there refuse to own any stock that lacks a dividend; in the case of United Parcel Service Inc, investors have received $41.27/share in dividends these past 20 years examined in the exercise above. This means total return was driven not just by share price, but also by the dividends received (and what the investor did with those dividends). For this exercise, what we’ve done with the dividends is to assume they are reinvestted — i.e. used to purchase additional shares (the calculations use closing price on ex-date).
Based upon the most recent annualized dividend rate of 4.04/share, we calculate that UPS has a current yield of approximately 4.24%. Another interesting datapoint we can examine is ‘yield on cost’ — in other words, we can express the current annualized dividend of 4.04 against the original $63.19/share purchase price. This works out to a yield on cost of 6.71%.
More investment wisdom to ponder:
“A lot of people with high IQs are terrible investors because they’ve got terrible temperaments. You need to keep raw, irrational emotion under control.” — Charlie Munger
