“I buy on the assumption that they could close the market the next day and not reopen it for five years.”
— Warren Buffett
The wisdom of Warren Buffett reflects a value-based philosophy about investing that says investors are buying shares in a business, and encourages strategic thinking about investment time horizon. Before placing a buy order for a stock, a great question we can ask is whether we would still be comfortable making the investment if we couldn’t sell it for many years?
A “buy-and-hold” approach may call for a time horizon that spans a long period of time — maybe even lasting for a five year holding period. Suppose such a “buy-and-hold” investor had looked into buying shares of Varian Medical Systems Inc (NYSE: VAR) back in 2015. Let’s take a look at how such an investment would have worked out for that buy-and-hold investor:
| Start date: | 03/16/2015 |
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| End date: | 03/13/2020 | ||||
| Start price/share: | $83.23 | ||||
| End price/share: | $113.14 | ||||
| Starting shares: | 120.15 | ||||
| Ending shares: | 120.15 | ||||
| Dividends reinvested/share: | $0.00 | ||||
| Total return: | 35.94% | ||||
| Average annual return: | 6.34% | ||||
| Starting investment: | $10,000.00 | ||||
| Ending investment: | $13,595.97 | ||||
The above analysis shows the five year investment result worked out well, with an annualized rate of return of 6.34%. This would have turned a $10K investment made 5 years ago into $13,595.97 today (as of 03/13/2020). On a total return basis, that’s a result of 35.94% (something to think about: how might VAR shares perform over the next 5 years?). [These numbers were computed with the Dividend Channel DRIP Returns Calculator.]
Here’s one more great investment quote before you go:
“One of the funny things about the stock market is that every time one person buys, another sells, and both think they are astute.” — William Feather
