“I buy on the assumption that they could close the market the next day and not reopen it for five years.”
— Warren Buffett
The above quote from Warren Buffett is timeless, and brings into focus the choice about time horizon that any investor should think about before buying a stock they are considering. Behind every stock is an actual business; what will that business look like over a five year period?
Today, let’s look backwards in time to 2015, and take a look at what happened to investors who asked that very question about O’Reilly Automotive, Inc. (NASD: ORLY), by taking a look at the investment outcome over a five year holding period.
| Start date: | 01/12/2015 |
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| End date: | 01/09/2020 | ||||
| Start price/share: | $185.58 | ||||
| End price/share: | $437.37 | ||||
| Starting shares: | 53.89 | ||||
| Ending shares: | 53.89 | ||||
| Dividends reinvested/share: | $0.00 | ||||
| Total return: | 135.68% | ||||
| Average annual return: | 18.73% | ||||
| Starting investment: | $10,000.00 | ||||
| Ending investment: | $23,571.86 | ||||
As shown above, the five year investment result worked out exceptionally well, with an annualized rate of return of 18.73%. This would have turned a $10K investment made 5 years ago into $23,571.86 today (as of 01/09/2020). On a total return basis, that’s a result of 135.68% (something to think about: how might ORLY shares perform over the next 5 years?). [These numbers were computed with the Dividend Channel DRIP Returns Calculator.]
Here’s one more great investment quote before you go:
“While some might mistakenly consider value investing a mechanical tool for identifying bargains, it is actually a comprehensive investment philosophy that emphasizes the need to perform in-depth fundamental analysis, pursue long-term investment results, limit risk, and resist crowd psychology.” — Seth Klarman
