“Only buy something that you’d be perfectly happy to hold if the market shut down for 10 years.”
— Warren Buffett
A key lesson we can learn from Warren Buffett, is about how to think about a potential stock investment in the context of a long-term time horizon. Every investor in a stock has a choice: bite our fingernails over the short-term ups and downs that are inevitable with the stock market, or, zero in on stocks we are comfortable to simply buy and hold for the long haul — maybe even a decade-long holding period. Heck, investors can even choose to completely ignore the stock market’s short-run quotations and instead go into their initial investment planning to hold on for years and years regardless of the fluctuations in price that might occur next.
Today, we examine what would have happened over a decade-long holding period, had you decided back in 2010 to buy shares of Valero Energy Corp (NYSE: VLO) and simply hold through to today.
| Start date: | 01/29/2010 |
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| End date: | 01/28/2020 | ||||
| Start price/share: | $16.84 | ||||
| End price/share: | $85.95 | ||||
| Starting shares: | 593.82 | ||||
| Ending shares: | 780.20 | ||||
| Dividends reinvested/share: | $16.63 | ||||
| Total return: | 570.59% | ||||
| Average annual return: | 20.95% | ||||
| Starting investment: | $10,000.00 | ||||
| Ending investment: | $67,032.44 | ||||
The above analysis shows the decade-long investment result worked out exceptionally well, with an annualized rate of return of 20.95%. This would have turned a $10K investment made 10 years ago into $67,032.44 today (as of 01/28/2020). On a total return basis, that’s a result of 570.59% (something to think about: how might VLO shares perform over the next 10 years?). [These numbers were computed with the Dividend Channel DRIP Returns Calculator.]
Beyond share price change, another component of VLO’s total return these past 10 years has been the payment by Valero Energy Corp of $16.63/share in dividends to shareholders. Automatic reinvestment of dividends can be a wonderful way to compound returns, and for the above calculations we presume that dividends are reinvested into additional shares of stock. (For the purpose of these calcuations, the closing price on ex-date is used).
Based upon the most recent annualized dividend rate of 3.92/share, we calculate that VLO has a current yield of approximately 4.56%. Another interesting datapoint we can examine is ‘yield on cost’ — in other words, we can express the current annualized dividend of 3.92 against the original $16.84/share purchase price. This works out to a yield on cost of 27.08%.
One more piece of investment wisdom to leave you with:
“Thousands of experts study overbought indicators, head-and-shoulder patterns, put-call ratios, the Fed’s policy on money supply…and they can’t predict markets with any useful consistency, any more than the gizzard squeezers could tell the Roman emperors when the Huns would attack.” — Peter Lynch
