“Only buy something that you’d be perfectly happy to hold if the market shut down for 10 years.”
— Warren Buffett
The above quote from Warren Buffett is timeless, and brings into focus the choice about time horizon that any investor should think about before buying a stock they are considering. Behind every stock is an actual business; what will that business look like over a decade-long period?
Today, let’s look backwards in time to 2009, and take a look at what happened to investors who asked that very question about Philip Morris International Inc (NYSE: PM), by taking a look at the investment outcome over a decade-long holding period.
| Start date: | 12/21/2009 |
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| End date: | 12/19/2019 | ||||
| Start price/share: | $49.25 | ||||
| End price/share: | $85.99 | ||||
| Starting shares: | 203.05 | ||||
| Ending shares: | 323.29 | ||||
| Dividends reinvested/share: | $38.03 | ||||
| Total return: | 178.00% | ||||
| Average annual return: | 10.77% | ||||
| Starting investment: | $10,000.00 | ||||
| Ending investment: | $27,811.32 | ||||
The above analysis shows the decade-long investment result worked out quite well, with an annualized rate of return of 10.77%. This would have turned a $10K investment made 10 years ago into $27,811.32 today (as of 12/19/2019). On a total return basis, that’s a result of 178.00% (something to think about: how might PM shares perform over the next 10 years?). [These numbers were computed with the Dividend Channel DRIP Returns Calculator.]
Many investors out there refuse to own any stock that lacks a dividend; in the case of Philip Morris International Inc, investors have received $38.03/share in dividends these past 10 years examined in the exercise above. This means total return was driven not just by share price, but also by the dividends received (and what the investor did with those dividends). For this exercise, what we’ve done with the dividends is to assume they are reinvestted — i.e. used to purchase additional shares (the calculations use closing price on ex-date).
Based upon the most recent annualized dividend rate of 4.68/share, we calculate that PM has a current yield of approximately 5.44%. Another interesting datapoint we can examine is ‘yield on cost’ — in other words, we can express the current annualized dividend of 4.68 against the original $49.25/share purchase price. This works out to a yield on cost of 11.05%.
Another great investment quote to think about:
“If you are not willing to own a stock for 10 years, do not even think about owning it for 10 minutes.” — Warren Buffett
