“Only buy something that you’d be perfectly happy to hold if the market shut down for 10 years.”
— Warren Buffett
The Warren Buffett investment philosophy calls for a long-term investment horizon, where a ten year holding period, or even longer, would fit right into the strategy. How would such a strategy have worked out for an investment into National Oilwell Varco Inc (NYSE: NOV)? Today, we examine the outcome of a ten year investment into the stock back in 2009.
| Start date: | 11/02/2009 |
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| End date: | 10/31/2019 | ||||
| Start price/share: | $37.31 | ||||
| End price/share: | $22.62 | ||||
| Starting shares: | 268.02 | ||||
| Ending shares: | 314.66 | ||||
| Dividends reinvested/share: | $7.64 | ||||
| Total return: | -28.82% | ||||
| Average annual return: | -3.34% | ||||
| Starting investment: | $10,000.00 | ||||
| Ending investment: | $7,120.46 | ||||
As shown above, the ten year investment result worked out poorly, with an annualized rate of return of -3.34%. This would have turned a $10K investment made 10 years ago into $7,120.46 today (as of 10/31/2019). On a total return basis, that’s a result of -28.82% (something to think about: how might NOV shares perform over the next 10 years?). [These numbers were computed with the Dividend Channel DRIP Returns Calculator.]
Beyond share price change, another component of NOV’s total return these past 10 years has been the payment by National Oilwell Varco Inc of $7.64/share in dividends to shareholders. Automatic reinvestment of dividends can be a wonderful way to compound returns, and for the above calculations we presume that dividends are reinvested into additional shares of stock. (For the purpose of these calcuations, the closing price on ex-date is used).
Based upon the most recent annualized dividend rate of .2/share, we calculate that NOV has a current yield of approximately 0.88%. Another interesting datapoint we can examine is ‘yield on cost’ — in other words, we can express the current annualized dividend of .2 against the original $37.31/share purchase price. This works out to a yield on cost of 2.36%.
Another great investment quote to think about:
“I made my money by selling too soon.” — Bernard Baruch
