“I buy on the assumption that they could close the market the next day and not reopen it for five years.”
— Warren Buffett
A critical pearl of wisdom from Warren Buffett teaches us that with any potential stock investment we may make, as soon as our buy order is filled we will have a choice: to remain a co-owner of that company for the long haul, or to react to the inevitable short-term ups and downs that the stock market is famous for (sometimes sharp ups and downs).
The reality of this choice forces us to challenge our confidence in any given company we might invest into, and keep our eyes on the long-term time horizon. The market may go up and down the interim, but over a five year holding period, will the investment succeed?
Back in 2014, investors may have been asking themselves that very question about Costco Wholesale Corp (NASD: COST). Let’s examine what would have happened over a five year holding period, had you invested in COST shares back in 2014 and held on.
| Start date: | 11/18/2014 |
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| End date: | 11/15/2019 | ||||
| Start price/share: | $139.21 | ||||
| End price/share: | $303.66 | ||||
| Starting shares: | 71.83 | ||||
| Ending shares: | 81.51 | ||||
| Dividends reinvested/share: | $21.98 | ||||
| Total return: | 147.51% | ||||
| Average annual return: | 19.90% | ||||
| Starting investment: | $10,000.00 | ||||
| Ending investment: | $24,755.06 | ||||
The above analysis shows the five year investment result worked out exceptionally well, with an annualized rate of return of 19.90%. This would have turned a $10K investment made 5 years ago into $24,755.06 today (as of 11/15/2019). On a total return basis, that’s a result of 147.51% (something to think about: how might COST shares perform over the next 5 years?). [These numbers were computed with the Dividend Channel DRIP Returns Calculator.]
Always an important consideration with a dividend-paying company is: should we reinvest our dividends?Over the past 5 years, Costco Wholesale Corp has paid $21.98/share in dividends. For the above analysis, we assume that the investor reinvests dividends into new shares of stock (for the above calculations, the reinvestment is performed using closing price on ex-div date for that dividend).
Based upon the most recent annualized dividend rate of 2.6/share, we calculate that COST has a current yield of approximately 0.86%. Another interesting datapoint we can examine is ‘yield on cost’ — in other words, we can express the current annualized dividend of 2.6 against the original $139.21/share purchase price. This works out to a yield on cost of 0.62%.
One more piece of investment wisdom to leave you with:
“Value investing requires a great deal of hard work, unusually strict discipline, and a long-term investment horizon. Few are willing and able to devote sufficient time and effort to become value investors, and only a fraction of those have the proper mind-set to succeed.” — Seth Klarman
