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“When we own portions of outstanding businesses with outstanding managements, our favorite holding period is forever.”

— Warren Buffett

Investors can learn a lot from Warren Buffett, whose above quote teaches the importance of thinking about investment time horizon, and asking ourselves before buying any given stock: can we envision holding onto it for years — even a twenty year holding period possibly?

Suppose a “buy-and-hold” investor was considering an investment into Smith (A O) Corp (NYSE: AOS) back in 1999: back then, such an investor may have been pondering this very same question. Had they answered “yes” to a full twenty year investment time horizon and then actually held for these past 20 years, here’s how that investment would have turned out.

Start date: 10/08/1999
$10,000

10/08/1999
$124,936

10/07/2019
End date: 10/07/2019
Start price/share: $5.15
End price/share: $45.13
Starting shares: 1,941.75
Ending shares: 2,769.18
Dividends reinvested/share: $4.90
Total return: 1,149.73%
Average annual return: 13.45%
Starting investment: $10,000.00
Ending investment: $124,936.86

As we can see, the twenty year investment result worked out quite well, with an annualized rate of return of 13.45%. This would have turned a $10K investment made 20 years ago into $124,936.86 today (as of 10/07/2019). On a total return basis, that’s a result of 1,149.73% (something to think about: how might AOS shares perform over the next 20 years?). [These numbers were computed with the Dividend Channel DRIP Returns Calculator.]

Notice that Smith (A O) Corp paid investors a total of $4.90/share in dividends over the 20 holding period, marking a second component of the total return beyond share price change alone. Much like watering a tree, reinvesting dividends can help an investment to grow over time — for the above calculations we assume dividend reinvestment (and for this exercise the closing price on ex-date is used for the reinvestment of a given dividend).

Based upon the most recent annualized dividend rate of .88/share, we calculate that AOS has a current yield of approximately 1.95%. Another interesting datapoint we can examine is ‘yield on cost’ — in other words, we can express the current annualized dividend of .88 against the original $5.15/share purchase price. This works out to a yield on cost of 37.86%.

One more piece of investment wisdom to leave you with:
“You make most of your money in a bear market, you just don’t realize it at the time.” — Shelby Davis