“Only buy something that you’d be perfectly happy to hold if the market shut down for 10 years.”
— Warren Buffett
The above quote from Warren Buffett is timeless, and brings into focus the choice about time horizon that any investor should think about before buying a stock they are considering. Behind every stock is an actual business; what will that business look like over a ten year period?
Today, let’s look backwards in time to 2009, and take a look at what happened to investors who asked that very question about Altria Group Inc (NYSE: MO), by taking a look at the investment outcome over a ten year holding period.
| Start date: | 09/23/2009 |
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| End date: | 09/20/2019 | ||||
| Start price/share: | $17.75 | ||||
| End price/share: | $40.81 | ||||
| Starting shares: | 563.38 | ||||
| Ending shares: | 935.60 | ||||
| Dividends reinvested/share: | $21.42 | ||||
| Total return: | 281.82% | ||||
| Average annual return: | 14.34% | ||||
| Starting investment: | $10,000.00 | ||||
| Ending investment: | $38,178.81 | ||||
The above analysis shows the ten year investment result worked out quite well, with an annualized rate of return of 14.34%. This would have turned a $10K investment made 10 years ago into $38,178.81 today (as of 09/20/2019). On a total return basis, that’s a result of 281.82% (something to think about: how might MO shares perform over the next 10 years?). [These numbers were computed with the Dividend Channel DRIP Returns Calculator.]
Notice that Altria Group Inc paid investors a total of $21.42/share in dividends over the 10 holding period, marking a second component of the total return beyond share price change alone. Much like watering a tree, reinvesting dividends can help an investment to grow over time — for the above calculations we assume dividend reinvestment (and for this exercise the closing price on ex-date is used for the reinvestment of a given dividend).
Based upon the most recent annualized dividend rate of 3.36/share, we calculate that MO has a current yield of approximately 8.23%. Another interesting datapoint we can examine is ‘yield on cost’ — in other words, we can express the current annualized dividend of 3.36 against the original $17.75/share purchase price. This works out to a yield on cost of 46.37%.
Here’s one more great investment quote before you go:
“The policy of being too cautious is the greatest risk of all.” — Jawaharlal Nehru
