“Someone’s sitting in the shade today because someone planted a tree a long time ago.”
— Warren Buffett
The wisdom of Warren Buffett reflects a value-based philosophy about investing that says investors are buying shares in a business, and encourages strategic thinking about investment time horizon. Before placing a buy order for a stock, a great question we can ask is whether we would still be comfortable making the investment if we couldn’t sell it for many years?
A “buy-and-hold” approach may call for a time horizon that spans a long period of time — maybe even lasting for a two-decade holding period. Suppose such a “buy-and-hold” investor had looked into buying shares of BorgWarner Inc (NYSE: BWA) back in 1999. Let’s take a look at how such an investment would have worked out for that buy-and-hold investor:
| Start date: | 06/14/1999 |
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| End date: | 06/12/2019 | ||||
| Start price/share: | $6.92 | ||||
| End price/share: | $40.58 | ||||
| Starting shares: | 1,445.09 | ||||
| Ending shares: | 1,753.27 | ||||
| Dividends reinvested/share: | $4.59 | ||||
| Total return: | 611.48% | ||||
| Average annual return: | 10.30% | ||||
| Starting investment: | $10,000.00 | ||||
| Ending investment: | $71,098.46 | ||||
As we can see, the two-decade investment result worked out quite well, with an annualized rate of return of 10.30%. This would have turned a $10K investment made 20 years ago into $71,098.46 today (as of 06/12/2019). On a total return basis, that’s a result of 611.48% (something to think about: how might BWA shares perform over the next 20 years?). [These numbers were computed with the Dividend Channel DRIP Returns Calculator.]
Notice that BorgWarner Inc paid investors a total of $4.59/share in dividends over the 20 holding period, marking a second component of the total return beyond share price change alone. Much like watering a tree, reinvesting dividends can help an investment to grow over time — for the above calculations we assume dividend reinvestment (and for this exercise the closing price on ex-date is used for the reinvestment of a given dividend).
Based upon the most recent annualized dividend rate of .68/share, we calculate that BWA has a current yield of approximately 1.68%. Another interesting datapoint we can examine is ‘yield on cost’ — in other words, we can express the current annualized dividend of .68 against the original $6.92/share purchase price. This works out to a yield on cost of 24.28%.
Here’s one more great investment quote before you go:
“Generally, the greater the stigma or revulsion, the better the bargain.” — Seth Klarman
