“When we own portions of outstanding businesses with outstanding managements, our favorite holding period is forever.”
— Warren Buffett
The Warren Buffett investment philosophy calls for a long-term investment horizon, where a twenty year holding period, or even longer, would fit right into the strategy. How would such a strategy have worked out for an investment into The Gap Inc (NYSE: GPS)? Today, we examine the outcome of a twenty year investment into the stock back in 1999.
| Start date: | 04/26/1999 |
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| End date: | 04/25/2019 | ||||
| Start price/share: | $45.96 | ||||
| End price/share: | $26.03 | ||||
| Starting shares: | 217.58 | ||||
| Ending shares: | 310.48 | ||||
| Dividends reinvested/share: | $8.94 | ||||
| Total return: | -19.18% | ||||
| Average annual return: | -1.06% | ||||
| Starting investment: | $10,000.00 | ||||
| Ending investment: | $8,079.55 | ||||
As shown above, the twenty year investment result worked out poorly, with an annualized rate of return of -1.06%. This would have turned a $10K investment made 20 years ago into $8,079.55 today (as of 04/25/2019). On a total return basis, that’s a result of -19.18% (something to think about: how might GPS shares perform over the next 20 years?). [These numbers were computed with the Dividend Channel DRIP Returns Calculator.]
Always an important consideration with a dividend-paying company is: should we reinvest our dividends?Over the past 20 years, The Gap Inc has paid $8.94/share in dividends. For the above analysis, we assume that the investor reinvests dividends into new shares of stock (for the above calculations, the reinvestment is performed using closing price on ex-div date for that dividend).
Based upon the most recent annualized dividend rate of .97/share, we calculate that GPS has a current yield of approximately 3.73%. Another interesting datapoint we can examine is ‘yield on cost’ — in other words, we can express the current annualized dividend of .97 against the original $45.96/share purchase price. This works out to a yield on cost of 8.12%.
Another great investment quote to think about:
“The right time for a company to finance its growth is not when it needs capital, but rather when the market is most receptive to providing capital.” — Michael Milken
