“Only buy something that you’d be perfectly happy to hold if the market shut down for 10 years.”
— Warren Buffett
One of the most important things investors can learn from Warren Buffett, is about how they approach their time horizon for an investment into a stock under consideration. Because immediately after buying shares of a given stock, investors will then be able to check on the day-to-day (and even minute-by-minute) market value. Some days the stock market will be up, other days down. These daily fluctuations can often distract from the long-term view. Today, we look at the result of a decade-long holding period for an investor who was considering Air Products & Chemicals Inc (NYSE: APD) back in 2013, bought the stock, ignored the market’s ups and downs, and simply held through to today.
| Start date: | 08/21/2013 |
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| End date: | 08/18/2023 | ||||
| Start price/share: | $94.08 | ||||
| End price/share: | $284.82 | ||||
| Starting shares: | 106.29 | ||||
| Ending shares: | 134.11 | ||||
| Dividends reinvested/share: | $43.99 | ||||
| Total return: | 281.97% | ||||
| Average annual return: | 14.35% | ||||
| Starting investment: | $10,000.00 | ||||
| Ending investment: | $38,212.21 | ||||
As we can see, the decade-long investment result worked out quite well, with an annualized rate of return of 14.35%. This would have turned a $10K investment made 10 years ago into $38,212.21 today (as of 08/18/2023). On a total return basis, that’s a result of 281.97% (something to think about: how might APD shares perform over the next 10 years?). [These numbers were computed with the Dividend Channel DRIP Returns Calculator.]
Beyond share price change, another component of APD’s total return these past 10 years has been the payment by Air Products & Chemicals Inc of $43.99/share in dividends to shareholders. Automatic reinvestment of dividends can be a wonderful way to compound returns, and for the above calculations we presume that dividends are reinvested into additional shares of stock. (For the purpose of these calcuations, the closing price on ex-date is used).
Based upon the most recent annualized dividend rate of 7/share, we calculate that APD has a current yield of approximately 2.46%. Another interesting datapoint we can examine is ‘yield on cost’ — in other words, we can express the current annualized dividend of 7 against the original $94.08/share purchase price. This works out to a yield on cost of 2.61%.
More investment wisdom to ponder:
“Investors should always keep in mind that the most important metric is not the returns achieved but the returns weighed against the risks incurred. Ultimately, nothing should be more important to investors than the ability to sleep soundly at night.” — Seth Klarman
