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“I buy on the assumption that they could close the market the next day and not reopen it for five years.”

— Warren Buffett

The Warren Buffett investment philosophy calls for a long-term investment horizon, where a five year holding period, or even longer, would fit right into the strategy. How would such a strategy have worked out for an investment into Advance Auto Parts Inc (NYSE: AAP)? Today, we examine the outcome of a five year investment into the stock back in 2014.

Start date: 07/21/2014


End date: 07/18/2019
Start price/share: $128.55
End price/share: $157.90
Starting shares: 77.79
Ending shares: 78.45
Dividends reinvested/share: $1.20
Total return: 23.88%
Average annual return: 4.38%
Starting investment: $10,000.00
Ending investment: $12,387.52

As shown above, the five year investment result worked out as follows, with an annualized rate of return of 4.38%. This would have turned a $10K investment made 5 years ago into $12,387.52 today (as of 07/18/2019). On a total return basis, that’s a result of 23.88% (something to think about: how might AAP shares perform over the next 5 years?). [These numbers were computed with the Dividend Channel DRIP Returns Calculator.]

Notice that Advance Auto Parts Inc paid investors a total of $1.20/share in dividends over the 5 holding period, marking a second component of the total return beyond share price change alone. Much like watering a tree, reinvesting dividends can help an investment to grow over time — for the above calculations we assume dividend reinvestment (and for this exercise the closing price on ex-date is used for the reinvestment of a given dividend).

Based upon the most recent annualized dividend rate of .24/share, we calculate that AAP has a current yield of approximately 0.15%. Another interesting datapoint we can examine is ‘yield on cost’ — in other words, we can express the current annualized dividend of .24 against the original $128.55/share purchase price. This works out to a yield on cost of 0.12%.

Here’s one more great investment quote before you go:
“We don’t have to be smarter than the rest. We have to be more disciplined than the rest.” — Warren Buffett