“Someone’s sitting in the shade today because someone planted a tree a long time ago.”
— Warren Buffett
One of the most important things investors can learn from Warren Buffett, is about how they approach their time horizon for an investment into a stock under consideration. Because immediately after buying shares of a given stock, investors will then be able to check on the day-to-day (and even minute-by-minute) market value. Some days the stock market will be up, other days down. These daily fluctuations can often distract from the long-term view. Today, we look at the result of a twenty year holding period for an investor who was considering Hershey Company (NYSE: HSY) back in 2004, bought the stock, ignored the market’s ups and downs, and simply held through to today.
| Start date: | 11/22/2004 |
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| End date: | 11/21/2024 | ||||
| Start price/share: | $52.27 | ||||
| End price/share: | $174.95 | ||||
| Starting shares: | 191.31 | ||||
| Ending shares: | 308.02 | ||||
| Dividends reinvested/share: | $47.08 | ||||
| Total return: | 438.88% | ||||
| Average annual return: | 8.78% | ||||
| Starting investment: | $10,000.00 | ||||
| Ending investment: | $53,874.30 | ||||
As shown above, the twenty year investment result worked out well, with an annualized rate of return of 8.78%. This would have turned a $10K investment made 20 years ago into $53,874.30 today (as of 11/21/2024). On a total return basis, that’s a result of 438.88% (something to think about: how might HSY shares perform over the next 20 years?). [These numbers were computed with the Dividend Channel DRIP Returns Calculator.]
Notice that Hershey Company paid investors a total of $47.08/share in dividends over the 20 holding period, marking a second component of the total return beyond share price change alone. Much like watering a tree, reinvesting dividends can help an investment to grow over time — for the above calculations we assume dividend reinvestment (and for this exercise the closing price on ex-date is used for the reinvestment of a given dividend).
Based upon the most recent annualized dividend rate of 5.48/share, we calculate that HSY has a current yield of approximately 3.13%. Another interesting datapoint we can examine is ‘yield on cost’ — in other words, we can express the current annualized dividend of 5.48 against the original $52.27/share purchase price. This works out to a yield on cost of 5.99%.
One more investment quote to leave you with:
“Generally, the greater the stigma or revulsion, the better the bargain.” — Seth Klarman
