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“I buy on the assumption that they could close the market the next day and not reopen it for five years.”

— Warren Buffett

A critical pearl of wisdom from Warren Buffett teaches us that with any potential stock investment we may make, as soon as our buy order is filled we will have a choice: to remain a co-owner of that company for the long haul, or to react to the inevitable short-term ups and downs that the stock market is famous for (sometimes sharp ups and downs).

The reality of this choice forces us to challenge our confidence in any given company we might invest into, and keep our eyes on the long-term time horizon. The market may go up and down the interim, but over a five year holding period, will the investment succeed?

Back in 2018, investors may have been asking themselves that very question about Fiserv Inc (NYSE: FI). Let’s examine what would have happened over a five year holding period, had you invested in FI shares back in 2018 and held on.

Start date: 11/16/2018
$10,000

11/16/2018
  $15,599

11/15/2023
End date: 11/15/2023
Start price/share: $80.28
End price/share: $125.24
Starting shares: 124.56
Ending shares: 124.56
Dividends reinvested/share: $0.00
Total return: 56.00%
Average annual return: 9.30%
Starting investment: $10,000.00
Ending investment: $15,599.15

As we can see, the five year investment result worked out well, with an annualized rate of return of 9.30%. This would have turned a $10K investment made 5 years ago into $15,599.15 today (as of 11/15/2023). On a total return basis, that’s a result of 56.00% (something to think about: how might FI shares perform over the next 5 years?). [These numbers were computed with the Dividend Channel DRIP Returns Calculator.]

Another great investment quote to think about:
“Based on my own personal experience, both as an investor in recent years and an expert witness in years past, rarely do more than three or four variables really count. Everything else is noise.” — Martin Whitman