“Only buy something that you’d be perfectly happy to hold if the market shut down for 10 years.”
— Warren Buffett
The Warren Buffett investment philosophy calls for a long-term investment horizon, where a decade-long holding period, or even longer, would fit right into the strategy. How would such a strategy have worked out for an investment into Lumen Technologies Inc (NYSE: LUMN)? Today, we examine the outcome of a decade-long investment into the stock back in 2013.
| Start date: | 02/27/2013 |
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| End date: | 02/24/2023 | ||||
| Start price/share: | $34.51 | ||||
| End price/share: | $3.56 | ||||
| Starting shares: | 289.77 | ||||
| Ending shares: | 640.37 | ||||
| Dividends reinvested/share: | $16.46 | ||||
| Total return: | -77.20% | ||||
| Average annual return: | -13.75% | ||||
| Starting investment: | $10,000.00 | ||||
| Ending investment: | $2,279.12 | ||||
As shown above, the decade-long investment result worked out poorly, with an annualized rate of return of -13.75%. This would have turned a $10K investment made 10 years ago into $2,279.12 today (as of 02/24/2023). On a total return basis, that’s a result of -77.20% (something to think about: how might LUMN shares perform over the next 10 years?). [These numbers were computed with the Dividend Channel DRIP Returns Calculator.]
Notice that Lumen Technologies Inc paid investors a total of $16.46/share in dividends over the 10 holding period, marking a second component of the total return beyond share price change alone. Much like watering a tree, reinvesting dividends can help an investment to grow over time — for the above calculations we assume dividend reinvestment (and for this exercise the closing price on ex-date is used for the reinvestment of a given dividend).
Based upon the most recent annualized dividend rate of 1/share, we calculate that LUMN has a current yield of approximately 28.09%. Another interesting datapoint we can examine is ‘yield on cost’ — in other words, we can express the current annualized dividend of 1 against the original $34.51/share purchase price. This works out to a yield on cost of 81.40%.
One more investment quote to leave you with:
“The most important three words in investing is: “I don’t know.†If someone doesn’t say that to you then they are lying.” — James Altucher
