“Someone’s sitting in the shade today because someone planted a tree a long time ago.”
— Warren Buffett
Investors can learn a lot from Warren Buffett, whose above quote teaches the importance of thinking about investment time horizon, and asking ourselves before buying any given stock: can we envision holding onto it for years — even a twenty year holding period possibly?
Suppose a “buy-and-hold” investor was considering an investment into Prologis Inc (NYSE: PLD) back in 2004: back then, such an investor may have been pondering this very same question. Had they answered “yes” to a full twenty year investment time horizon and then actually held for these past 20 years, here’s how that investment would have turned out.
| Start date: | 01/09/2004 |
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| End date: | 01/08/2024 | ||||
| Start price/share: | $33.25 | ||||
| End price/share: | $133.17 | ||||
| Starting shares: | 300.75 | ||||
| Ending shares: | 589.31 | ||||
| Dividends reinvested/share: | $36.26 | ||||
| Total return: | 684.79% | ||||
| Average annual return: | 10.84% | ||||
| Starting investment: | $10,000.00 | ||||
| Ending investment: | $78,418.80 | ||||
The above analysis shows the twenty year investment result worked out quite well, with an annualized rate of return of 10.84%. This would have turned a $10K investment made 20 years ago into $78,418.80 today (as of 01/08/2024). On a total return basis, that’s a result of 684.79% (something to think about: how might PLD shares perform over the next 20 years?). [These numbers were computed with the Dividend Channel DRIP Returns Calculator.]
Notice that Prologis Inc paid investors a total of $36.26/share in dividends over the 20 holding period, marking a second component of the total return beyond share price change alone. Much like watering a tree, reinvesting dividends can help an investment to grow over time — for the above calculations we assume dividend reinvestment (and for this exercise the closing price on ex-date is used for the reinvestment of a given dividend).
Based upon the most recent annualized dividend rate of 3.48/share, we calculate that PLD has a current yield of approximately 2.61%. Another interesting datapoint we can examine is ‘yield on cost’ — in other words, we can express the current annualized dividend of 3.48 against the original $33.25/share purchase price. This works out to a yield on cost of 7.85%.
More investment wisdom to ponder:
“Those who do not remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” — George Santayana
