“I buy on the assumption that they could close the market the next day and not reopen it for five years.”
— Warren Buffett
The above quote from Warren Buffett is timeless, and brings into focus the choice about time horizon that any investor should think about before buying a stock they are considering. Behind every stock is an actual business; what will that business look like over a five year period?
Today, let’s look backwards in time to 2018, and take a look at what happened to investors who asked that very question about Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (NYSE: CMG), by taking a look at the investment outcome over a five year holding period.
| Start date: | 12/10/2018 |
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| End date: | 12/07/2023 | ||||
| Start price/share: | $475.15 | ||||
| End price/share: | $2,226.25 | ||||
| Starting shares: | 21.05 | ||||
| Ending shares: | 21.05 | ||||
| Dividends reinvested/share: | $0.00 | ||||
| Total return: | 368.54% | ||||
| Average annual return: | 36.24% | ||||
| Starting investment: | $10,000.00 | ||||
| Ending investment: | $46,858.38 | ||||
The above analysis shows the five year investment result worked out exceptionally well, with an annualized rate of return of 36.24%. This would have turned a $10K investment made 5 years ago into $46,858.38 today (as of 12/07/2023). On a total return basis, that’s a result of 368.54% (something to think about: how might CMG shares perform over the next 5 years?). [These numbers were computed with the Dividend Channel DRIP Returns Calculator.]
One more investment quote to leave you with:
“Your success in investing will depend in part on your character and guts and in part on your ability to realize, at the height of ebullience and the depth of despair alike, that this too, shall pass.” — Jack Bogle
