“Only buy something that you’d be perfectly happy to hold if the market shut down for 10 years.”
— Warren Buffett
The wisdom of Warren Buffett reflects a value-based philosophy about investing that says investors are buying shares in a business, and encourages strategic thinking about investment time horizon. Before placing a buy order for a stock, a great question we can ask is whether we would still be comfortable making the investment if we couldn’t sell it for many years?
A “buy-and-hold” approach may call for a time horizon that spans a long period of time — maybe even lasting for a ten year holding period. Suppose such a “buy-and-hold” investor had looked into buying shares of Phillips 66 (NYSE: PSX) back in 2013. Let’s take a look at how such an investment would have worked out for that buy-and-hold investor:
| Start date: | 12/09/2013 |
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| End date: | 12/06/2023 | ||||
| Start price/share: | $71.83 | ||||
| End price/share: | $125.00 | ||||
| Starting shares: | 139.22 | ||||
| Ending shares: | 198.99 | ||||
| Dividends reinvested/share: | $31.10 | ||||
| Total return: | 148.74% | ||||
| Average annual return: | 9.54% | ||||
| Starting investment: | $10,000.00 | ||||
| Ending investment: | $24,866.75 | ||||
As shown above, the ten year investment result worked out well, with an annualized rate of return of 9.54%. This would have turned a $10K investment made 10 years ago into $24,866.75 today (as of 12/06/2023). On a total return basis, that’s a result of 148.74% (something to think about: how might PSX shares perform over the next 10 years?). [These numbers were computed with the Dividend Channel DRIP Returns Calculator.]
Notice that Phillips 66 paid investors a total of $31.10/share in dividends over the 10 holding period, marking a second component of the total return beyond share price change alone. Much like watering a tree, reinvesting dividends can help an investment to grow over time — for the above calculations we assume dividend reinvestment (and for this exercise the closing price on ex-date is used for the reinvestment of a given dividend).
Based upon the most recent annualized dividend rate of 4.2/share, we calculate that PSX has a current yield of approximately 3.36%. Another interesting datapoint we can examine is ‘yield on cost’ — in other words, we can express the current annualized dividend of 4.2 against the original $71.83/share purchase price. This works out to a yield on cost of 4.68%.
More investment wisdom to ponder:
“I made my money by selling too soon.” — Bernard Baruch
