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“I buy on the assumption that they could close the market the next day and not reopen it for five years.”

— Warren Buffett

The above quote from Warren Buffett is timeless, and brings into focus the choice about time horizon that any investor should think about before buying a stock they are considering. Behind every stock is an actual business; what will that business look like over a five year period?

Today, let’s look backwards in time to 2018, and take a look at what happened to investors who asked that very question about Moderna Inc (NASD: MRNA), by taking a look at the investment outcome over a five year holding period.

Start date: 12/07/2018


End date: 11/16/2023
Start price/share: $18.60
End price/share: $76.55
Starting shares: 537.63
Ending shares: 537.63
Dividends reinvested/share: $0.00
Total return: 311.56%
Average annual return: 33.12%
Starting investment: $10,000.00
Ending investment: $41,153.68

The above analysis shows the five year investment result worked out exceptionally well, with an annualized rate of return of 33.12%. This would have turned a $10K investment made 5 years ago into $41,153.68 today (as of 11/16/2023). On a total return basis, that’s a result of 311.56% (something to think about: how might MRNA shares perform over the next 5 years?). [These numbers were computed with the Dividend Channel DRIP Returns Calculator.]

Another great investment quote to think about:
“Only when the tide goes out do you discover who’s been swimming naked.” — Warren Buffett